RBA’s Bullock: Another hike neither ruled out nor ruled in

In an appearance before a parliamentary economics committee in Canberra today, RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the presence of “some encouraging signs” in Australia’s economic landscape, yet cautioned that the nation’s battle against inflation is “not over”.

RBA’s stance remains deliberately balanced, with Bullock stating, “At this stage, the Board hasn’t ruled out a further increase in interest rates but neither has it ruled it in.” Interest rate path will “depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks”.

Bullock further elaborated on the dynamics of demand and supply within the Australian economy, indicating that demand levels continue to outstrip the economy’s supply capacity. This imbalance, coupled with persistently tight labor market conditions, suggests that while the observed slowdown in demand is contributing to a moderation of inflationary pressures, the desired equilibrium has yet to be reached.

Goods price inflation has shown a softer trend than anticipated, mirroring patterns observed in international markets, Bullock noted. However, services price inflation remains elevated, driven by significant increases in both labor and non-labor input costs.

“Indeed, while inflation was lower than we were expecting in November, this is largely attributable to softer-than-expected goods inflation – services inflation was pretty much where we had forecast it to be.”

RBA Bullock’s opening statement here.