USD/JPY stayed in the consolidation from 114.44 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Decisive break of 114.49 key resistance will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65. On the downside, below 112.95 will bring deeper pull back. But strong support should be seen from 111.64 support to maintain bullishness and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
