USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.3418 extended higher last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.3946 to 1.3418 at 1.3505. Decisive break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3559 next. On the downside, however, break of 1.3471 will turn bias to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.3946 through 1.3418.
In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
