US consumers grew more optimistic in June, with inflation expectations moderating and perceptions of job security improving, according to the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
One-year-ahead median inflation expectations fell to 3.0%, reversing the recent uptick to 3.6% in April and returning to January levels. Longer-term expectations were unchanged at 3.0% for the three-year horizon and 2.6% for five years out.
Despite the easing in the overall inflation outlook, households still foresee higher costs in key sectors. Expectations for gas prices rose to 4.2%, while anticipated medical care inflation jumped to 9.3% — the highest since June 2023. Price expectations for college tuition and rent also climbed to 9.1%, and food inflation is still seen at a firm 5.5%. These category-specific pressures suggest that while headline inflation may be easing, households continue to feel cost pressures in essential areas.
Labor market sentiment strengthened, with the perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months falling to 14.0% — the lowest since December 2024. The improvement was broad-based across age and education groups.
