GBP/CAD built on last week’s strong rebound as trading opened this week, with technical signals pointing to a retest of the recent high at 1.8830 as next step. The near-term direction will hinge partly on UK data, with employment figures due Tuesday and June GDP on Thursday.
Last week’s narrow 5–4 BoE vote to cut the Bank Rate to 4.00% highlighted the divide within the MPC, and the interplay between economic resilience and sticky inflation will remain the key driver.
Market consensus still favors a gradual “one cut per quarter” easing path from the BoE. A solid GDP print combined with firm labor market data — especially upside surprises in wage growth — could strengthen the hawkish camp’s argument to keep the pace steady, if not slower.
Technically, GBP/CAD’s break of 1.8484 resistance confirms that the fall from 1.8830 bottomed at 1.8228. The corrective pattern from 1.8777 also appears to have completed a three-wave correction at that low. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.8830 next. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 38.2% projection of 1.6355 to 1.1877 from 1.8228 at 1.9153.
