EUR/CHF turned into consolidation last week but the late breach of 0.9438 temporary top suggests that rise from 0.9265 is resuming. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week. Decisive break of 0.9445 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 0.9218 has resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9218 to 0.9445 from 0.9265 at 0.9492. On the downside, however, break of 0.9400 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9860) holds.
