EUR/CHF edged lower to 0.9313 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9394 resistance holds. Break of 0.9313 will resume the decline from 0.9452 to retest 0.9218 low. On the upside, break of 0.9394 will bring stronger rally towards 0.9452 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9839) holds.
