AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6706 short term top continued last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.6545) will confirm rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper fall to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). On the upside, above 0.6574 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6627 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.
 will confirm rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper fall to 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). On the upside, above 0.6574 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6627 resistance holds, in case of recovery.){kind=link}