Key takeaways
- Dow Jones continues to outperform despite the AI-led sell-off, holding smaller losses than the Nasdaq 100 and maintaining relative strength supported by value-oriented sector weightings.
- Intermarket signals favour the value factor, with a re-steepening US yield curve and a bullish breakout in value ETF versus momentum ETF, reinforcing the case for medium-term DJIA outperformance over tech-heavy indices.
- The DJIA’s medium-term uptrend remains intact, with price still above its ascending channel support and momentum stabilising; holding 45,650/45,020 keeps the bullish structure intact, with resistances at 48,460 and 49,130/49,220.
The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have staged the expected rally and hit a fresh all-time high of 48,460 on 12 November 2025.
Thereafter, it faces an “indiscriminating sell-off” in the following week of 17 November 2025, triggered by a loop of negative cascading price actions on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) juggernaut, Nvidia, and other AI-related technology stocks over “bubble bursting” fears.
Despite the synchronized sell-off seen in the past week among the major US stock indices, Dow Jones (DJIA)’s month-to-date performance as of 24 November 2025 fared better than the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, with a loss of -2.3% versus -3.8% (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: Month-to-day performances of global benchmark stock indices as of 24 Nov 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)
Also, intermarket and relative strength analyses of relevant factors (smart beta) exchange-traded funds continue to point to potential outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the mega-cap technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 in the medium-term horizon (multi-week)
Let’s unravel.
Value factor outperformance and re-steepening of the US Treasury yield
Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, momentum, value factors, US Treasury yield curve major trends as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to be viewed as a more “value-oriented” barometer benchmark US stock index due to its higher weightage of value-related sectors, such as Financials, over the Nasdaq 100; the Financials sector has a weightage of 27% in the DJIA.
One of the key drivers that allows the DJIA to stage a rally to its recent all-time high on 12 November 2025 is the re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) from 0.48% on 29 October 2025 to 0.53% on 7 November 2025, which, in turn, also reinforced the bullish breakout of the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (see Fig. 2).
At the same time, the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (36% weightage in Information Technology)/S&P 500 ETF staged a bearish breakdown on 3 November 2025.
The current re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, coupled with a major bullish breakout seen on the ratio chart of S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (which indicates the potential outperformance of the value factor in the US stock market) is likely to support a medium-term outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the Nasdaq 100.
The Dow Jones (DJIA) continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel
Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Despite the recent price action breakdown of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the current price level of 46,392 at the time of writing is still holding above its medium-term ascending channel support in place since the 23 May 2025 low of 41,156 (see Fig. 3).
In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator has just managed to bounce off a key horizontal support at the 35 level, indicating that downside momentum has started to wane.
Maintain a bullish bias over the medium-term horizon with key medium-term pivotal support zone at 45,650/45,020. A clearance above the 47,100 intermediate resistance is likely to kickstart a new potential bullish implusive up move sequence to retest the 48,460 current all-time high before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 49,130/49,220 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster).
However, a break below 45,020 invalidates the recovery scenario for an extension of the medium-term correction towards the 43,935 long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average).
