Week in review – Were the past few weeks just a farce?
Markets rebounded as if nothing happened – Nvidia (NVDA) earnings came to save the trend as the narrative was switching to a general AI-Bubble scare.
The earnings brought back confidence into the Market, and this feeling got exacerbated by a brand new dovish repricing after last Friday’s speech by NY Fed President John Williams, who signaled his “support for a rate cut in the near-term”.
Pricing for the December 10 FOMC Meeting – Source: FedWatch Tool
This sentiment was further confirmed by not-so-hot (late) September US PPI and Retail Sales and honestly weak Weekly Private Jobs data from ADP.
Cryptos bounced back timidly, with Bitcoin regaining the $92,000 level but rejecting it in the early afternoon, but the most impressive really were the Metals, all back to their cycle highs, and Stocks which almost erased their entire 3-week drop in the matter of a few days, with all US Indices posting gains today to close an already strong week.
Volumes have been low throughout the week, a classic of Thanksgiving trading.
Therefore, some of these moves might get retested as large traders coming back from their breaks may move prices quite aggressively – Things will get confirmed Monday.
Weekly Performance across Asset Classes
Weekly Asset Performance – What’s going with Oil? November 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView
In terms of Central Bank communication, not much changed except for a very divided Bank of Japan, leading to another, less ardent Yen selloff.
A December rate hike becomes more and more probable (now priced at roughly 56%) as yesterday’s Tokyo inflation came in hotter than expected, keeping pressure on the BoJ to normalize policy.
But markets did receive some better geopolitical headlines: The light is at the end of the tunnel for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with talks accelerating.
Steve Witkoff, US Envoy, will travel to Moscow next week to discuss the revised peace proposal, and Zelenskyy is expecting to discuss with the US “in the near future” as negotiations progress on a new framework.
The Week Ahead – Final stretches of Economic data before the December FOMC
Asia Pacific Markets – All eyes on Bank of Japan’s Ueda and the Australian GDP
Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have bounced higher to close this calm FX week, with Aussie and Kiwi data still tenace (particularly for Australia).
NZD/USD posts a major reversal higher after the RBNZ Cut – Technical Outlook
AUD will be on the spotlight as the latest CPI report for Australia came red-hot (3.8% y/y), with hopes for cuts flying away from the continuous strong inflation numbers.
So keep an eye on the GDP report for Australia, releasing Wednesday evening in between PMI and Trade Balance releases.
The Yen, which hasn’t grabbed enough attention in the past few months, will once again also be at the center of the scene as the week won’t even have begun for North Americans.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will appear at a Business Leaders conference in Nagoya Sunday evening, with comments regarding his recent meeting with PM Takaichi and the blushing Japanese CPI.
Europe and UK Markets – Inflation reports and EU data flood
Markets are turning the page on the UK Budget which had taken quite some attention throughout the FX space and brought some renewed demand for the Pound, back above the 1.32 Level against the US Dollar.
Inflation data throughout the European continent will put both the EUR and CHF in action.
The European HICP is taking place on Tuesday at 6:00 A.M., while the Swiss inflation (closely watched for the next SNB decision) releases on Wednesday at 3:30 A.M.
The Swiss National Bank has been reflecting on a potential cut below 0% if Swiss inflation remains subdued, once again struck with small deflation in the past months. This has led a fair weakening of the CHF.
For the rest, a lot of growth Data will also be released for the Eurozone, with their PPI, Retail Sales and GDP going back to back to back towards the end of the week.
North America – Jerome Powell, Final Data for the Fed and a return of Canadian Dollar strength?
Canada has finally began to show upside to their ever-weakening growth data, posting a gigantic 2.6% (exp at 0.5%) Annualized Q3 GDP this morning (!), the previous was at -1.8% just to put things in perspective.
This combined with pre-occuring US Dollar weakness has taken USD/CAD to new lows to close the Thanksgiving week.
With American traders coming back to their screens, we should see if this week’s flows get anchored. Expect hesitation until Friday’s PCE release.
For other data points, US and Canadian PMIs will occupying NA traders from Monday to Thursday. US-Canada talks are still in a limbo.
Of course, don’t forget the Monthly ADP Private Jobs release on Tuesday, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Canadian Employment Data releasing Friday morning.
Monday morning should be active for Markets with Fed’s Powell participating in a panel discussion – Nevertheless, the FOMC is in a blackout period so he shouldn’t speak much regarding the following week’s decision.
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)
Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!
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