China’s official PMIs delivered a clear upside surprise in December, signaling a return to expansion for the first time since March. PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.2 to 50.1, beating expectations of 49.4, while PMI Non-Manufacturing climbed from 49.5 to 50.2, also above forecast. The improvement was broad enough to lift PMI Composite from 49.7 to 50.7, pointing to renewed momentum across both goods and services activity.
According to National Bureau of Statistics of China, the rebound marks a notable stabilization heading into year-end. Large enterprises were the primary driver of the pickup, as PMI jumped to 50.8, up 1.5 points from November, reflecting stronger capacity utilization and firmer order flows. In contrast, activity among smaller firms remained under pressure, with medium-sized enterprises edging up to 49.8 and small firms slipping further to 48.6.
NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui said new orders rose meaningfully in December, describing a significant expansion in both production and demand. He also pointed to improving confidence tied to pre-holiday stockpiling ahead of the Lunar New Year in February, particularly in agriculture, food processing, and beverage sectors.
Private-sector data echoed the official improvement. RatingDog PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.9 to 50.1, also beating expectations. RatingDog founder Yao Yu said new orders have now grown for seven consecutive months, supported by domestic product launches and business expansion.
