EUR/AUD’s fall from 1.8160 accelerated to 1.7287 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7477 support turned resistance holds. Current decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.8554. Below 1.7287 will target 1.7245 support, and then 1.6922 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.7477 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7645).
In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7468) argues that fall from 1.8554 medium term top is already correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is in favor to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922, and possibly below. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.8160 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6610) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
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