Retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month (m/m) in November, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in October. The headline result was stronger than the consensus forecast, which called for a 0.4% m/m gain.
Non-core sales categories were all up on the month, reversing their declines in October. Sales of autos and parts rose by 1% m/m, while sales at gasoline stations increased by 1.4% m/m. Sales at building and garden retailers also improved (+1.3% m/m).
Sales in the “control group”, which excludes the three above categories, also rose (+0.4%), although at a slightly slower pace than in October (+0.6% m/m). Strength was seen at clothing retailers (+0.9%), sporting goods (+1.9%), miscellaneous retailers (+1.7%) and non-store retailers (+0.4%). On the other hand, spending was little changed at food & beverage stores, and at electronics & appliance and furniture retailers.
Following a flat performance in October, spending at bars and restaurants rose by 0.6% in November. This is the only service category in the report.
Key Implications
Headline retail sales rebounded in November following a flat reading in the previous month. However, core sales were robust in both October and November, with consumers appearing to have largely shrugged off the impact of the government shutdown. Additionally, various private sector reports indicate that spending was resilient during December’s holiday season. Taken together, this suggests that growth in consumer spending was likely stronger in Q4 of 2025 than our earlier tracking of 1.1% (annualized).
We expect consumer spending to remain robust at the start of 2026. Consumers should benefit from previous interest rate cuts as they feed through the economy, some stabilization in the labor market, and non-accelerating inflation. Households will also benefit from the fiscal boost stemming from the OBBBA, as higher tax refunds— which are expected to arrive between February and April—temporarily boost household income and spending.
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