- Europe is an unintended victim of the Middle East conflict.
- The growing likelihood of two ECB rate hikes is not enough to boost EURUSD.
The US dollar posted its strongest weekly performance in a year and may extend its rally amid intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Political developments in Iran have increased uncertainty about the conflict’s trajectory, boosting safe-haven demand for the dollar. As a result, EURUSD opened the week with a gap lower.
The rapid rise in oil prices contributed to recessions in the US economy in 1973, 1980, 1990 and 2008. And the current cooling of the American labour market, driven by the White House’s tariff and anti-immigration policies, suggests a downturn. Indeed, in February, non-farm employment fell by 92K, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. However, the United States is currently a net energy exporter. Its economy will suffer less from a rally in Brent and WTI above $100 per barrel than Europe or Asia.
This is why the shock of rising oil and gas prices is reversing the ‘sell America’ flows. US stock indices have fallen less than their competitors, and the greenback has risen. Speculators have reduced their net shorts on the USD by two-thirds over the past few days.
Even the increased chances of two ECB rate hikes this year to above 30% are not enough to halt the euro’s fall. Before the armed conflict in the Middle East, investors believed that the deposit rate would remain unchanged in 2026. Now they are confident it will rise from 2% to 2.25% and estimate the possibility of growth to 2.5% amid potential inflation acceleration. However, when geopolitics reigns supreme, central banks fade into the background.
The ECB is unlikely to start a cycle of monetary tightening amid serious economic pain from energy disruptions and a surge in oil and gas prices. European reserves are depleted, and the region is a net importer of energy, with the lion’s share coming from the Middle East. EURUSD rightly looks like one of the main currency pairs affected by the escalation of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran on Forex.
