Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7579; (P) 0.7609; (R1) 0.7666; More…
AUD/USD’s strong rebound and break of 0.7652 indicates short term bottoming at 0.7500, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is now on the upside for further rise. However, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7732 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.8124 to 0.7500 at 0.77385) to limit upside to bring fall resumption. Below 0.7579 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7500 and believe. However, sustained break of 0.7732 should invalidate our bearish view and bring stronger rise through 61.8% retracement at 0.7886.
In the bigger picture, corrective rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is likely completed at 0.8124, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8029). Decisive break of 0.7328 key cluster support (61.8% retracement 0.6826 to 0.8124 at 0.7322) will confirm. And in that case, long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) will likely be resuming. Break of 0.6826 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8124 at 0.5496. This will now be the favored case as long as 0.7732 near term resistance holds.
