China’s trade data showed a sharp divergence in March, with exports slowing while imports surged amid volatile commodity markets. Exports rose 2.5% yoy, down from prior strength and well below expectations of 8.6%, marking a five-month low. In contrast, imports jumped 27.8% yoy, far exceeding forecasts of 11.2% and recording the strongest growth since November 2021, pushing the trade surplus to USD 51.13 billion.
The weakness in exports points to softer external demand, while the surge in imports suggests front-loading of commodity purchases amid rising price risks. However, energy imports showed strain from geopolitical disruptions. Crude oil imports fell -2.8% yoy, while natural gas imports dropped -10.7% yoy to their lowest since October 2022. The Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have begun to affect flows, with some Chinese vessels reportedly delayed.
Officials acknowledged the challenging backdrop. Customs Vice Minister Wang Jun said global oil prices have seen “fierce fluctuation,” creating a “complex and severe” trade environment. With Middle East supply disruptions expected to weigh further on April imports, the data highlights rising uncertainty for China’s trade outlook, where external demand softness and energy volatility are beginning to converge.
