Key takeaways
- The AI-driven equity rally is showing signs of fatigue after Broadcom’s disappointing guidance triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor and cybersecurity stocks, prompting investors to rotate into more defensive and cyclical sectors.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a record high as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, while hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations supported industrial, financial, and value-oriented sectors.
- Indonesia has emerged as a major source of regional market stress, with the rupiah and local equities suffering significant capital outflows amid concerns over government intervention policies, raising broader emerging-market contagion risks across Asia.
- Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor uptrend from 19 May 2026 at risk of breaking down below 30,535 key short-term resistance.
Chart of the day – Nasdaq 100 at risk of minor corrective decline
Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 5 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor ascending channel support, taken from the 19 May 2026 low, after it printed a fresh intraday all-time high of 30,773 on Wednesday, 5 June 2026.
Yesterday’s bearish reaction close to the former ascending channel support implies that the minor uptrend phase from the 10 May 2026 low is in jeopardy.
Watch the 30,535 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 30,000 near-term support may trigger a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average), and 29,410.
However, a clearance with an hourly close above 30,535 invalidates the bearish tone and extends the bullish impulsive up move, with the current all-time high area at 30,728/795, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).
Top macro headlines
- Tech sector wobbles on Broadcom outlook: Broadcom Inc. shares slumped 14% to 15% in premarket trading after its semiconductor revenue forecast fell short of expectations. This triggered a broader tech selloff that also hit cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike, which dropped 10%.
- Dow surges as oil eases: Reversing yesterday’s spike, WTI and Brent crude prices dropped by 2%-3% to fall back to around $95-83 a barrel as traders eyed a potential Iran deal following news of a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. This relief in energy costs propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 875 points (1.70%) to a record high.
- Middle East ceasefire complications: While oil prices initially fell on ceasefire hopes, US efforts to halt fighting in Lebanon were undermined after the pro-Iran Hezbollah movement rejected the new truce and Israel said it would not withdraw troops. Progress in US-Iran talks has also stalled.
- Indonesian markets plunge: Indonesian assets are in a severe selloff, with the benchmark stock index tumbling 36% from its record high five months ago, making it the worst-performing market globally this year. The rupiah fell by over 7% amid concerns about President Prabowo Subianto’s interventionist policies.
Key macro themes
- AI Enthusiasm meets reality check: The “parabolic” rally in semiconductor and AI stocks is taking a breather. Investors are rotating out of tech and into other sectors viewed as better positioned for a resilient economy, re-evaluating the immediate revenue returns of massive AI infrastructure spending.
- Emerging-market contagion risks: The rapid withdrawal of foreign capital from Indonesia underscores the vulnerability of emerging markets to populist political shifts. The South Korean won also fell to its weakest level since 2009 at 1,545 per USD, indicating broader pressure on Asian currencies as the Iran war drags on.
- Energy security and inflation: Oil markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with the Saudi energy minister calling for stability at a Russian economic forum to prevent a loss of energy sustainability. Markets are weighing whether oil-driven inflation pressures could force a US interest rate hike as soon as October.
Global markets impact (last 24 hours)
Equities: S&P 500 futures slipped to 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1% in today’s early Asia session. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high on sector rotation on Thursday, 4 June. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% amid its lower tech weighting. The UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.3%.
Fixed Income: Shorter-term US Treasuries rebounded, with the US 2-year yield declining 4 basis points to 4.05% ahead of today’s US non-farm payroll report, while the US 10-year yield held steady at around 4.48%.
FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.1%. The euro rose 0.4% intraday to $1.1645 before closing lower at $1.1611 on Thursday, 4 June. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly to 159.77-159.85 per USD before rebounding to 160.00 (close to prior intervention levels).
Commodities: WTI crude fell by 3.4% to around $92.92/bbl. Spot gold rebounded by 0.9% to $4,475/oz but remained below its 20-day moving average at around $4,544/oz.
Asia Pacific impact
- Tech-heavy markets suffer: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8% to 1.3%, dragged down by the US tech selloff. South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled 5% intraday, acting as a bellwether for regional AI investments. Across the board, weakness was seen in key Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices today: Nikkei 225 (-1.6%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.1%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-0.3%).
- Currency Interventions looming: The South Korean won hit its weakest level since 2009. Authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines are stepping up efforts to support their currencies as policymakers near the limits of their currency defences.
- Indonesian rout: The “sell Indonesia” trade is dominating the region, with massive foreign capital outflows from both bonds and equities following President Prabowo’s move to take direct control of key commodity exports.
Top 3 events to watch today
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) – 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: +85K, Apr: +115K) Impact: All asset classes
- US Unemployment Rate (May) – 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Apr: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classes
- US-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes
