EUR/JPY edged higher to 186.18 but retreated sharply since then. Downside is still supported above 184.42 and initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 182.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 187.93, and could have completed at 186.18 already. Firm break of 184.42 will argue that the third leg has already started. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 182.01 support and below. Risk will now stay mildly on the downside as long as 186.18 holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 178.53) will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 178.53) holds.
