USD/CHF’s strong rally last week confirmed resumption of whole rise from 0.7603. Initial bias stays on the upside for 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7600 at 0.8198. Decisive break there will target 161.8% projection at 0.8469. On the downside, below 0.8128 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8029 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213. Decisive break will argue that USD/CHF is reversing the medium term trend, and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8213 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.7603 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
