USD/JPY’s steep decline today suggests that a medium term top is probably formed at 163.97 already. Immediate focus is now on rising channel floor (now at 158.74). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 163.97 is already correcting the whole rise from 139.87, and target 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76. Strong rebound from the channel support will keep the rally from 139.87 intact. But still, even in this case, more consolidations would be seen below 163.97 for a while.
In the bigger picture, the break of 159.44 resistance turned support, together with bearish divergence condition in D MACD, suggests that a medium term top could be formed at 163.97 already. More consolidations would be seen in the near term. But still, outlook will remain bullish as long as 152.25 support holds. The long term up trend is still expected to continue at a later stage, only delayed.
. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 163.97 is already correcting the whole rise from 139.87, and target 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76. Strong rebound from the channel support will keep the rally from 139.87 intact. But still, even in this case, more consolidations would be seen below 163.97 for a while.){kind=link}