US retail sales rebounded from a revised 0.5% contraction to 1.2% growth month on month in August, exceeding expectations for a 0.8% increase. Sales excluding autos accelerated from a revised 0.2% decline to 1.4% growth, more than double the 0.6% consensus. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline rose 1.2%, while annual growth in total sales strengthened from 5.0% to 6.0%.
The rebound was broadly based. Nonstore retailers led with a 2.6% increase, followed by miscellaneous retailers at 1.9%, electronics and appliances at 1.6%, and sporting goods and food services at 1.2% each. Gasoline-station receipts rose 3.1% as fuel prices increased, but sales excluding gasoline still gained 1.1%, confirming that the headline surprise was not solely an energy-price effect. Building-material sales and department-store receipts were the principal weak spots, falling 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. The figures are not adjusted for inflation, however, limiting how much of the increase can be interpreted as stronger real consumption.
The report does not change expectations for today’s widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike, but it strengthens the case against a dovish policy signal. Resilient consumer spending, combined with inflation pressure from higher energy costs, raises the bar for the new Summary of Economic Projections to show a materially softer path than markets expect. The data therefore matter less for the immediate decision than for whether the Fed validates additional tightening over the coming quarters.
Data summary
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail sales m/m | 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.5%* |
| Retail sales ex autos m/m | 1.4% | 0.6% | -0.2%* |
*Headline sales were revised from -0.6% to -0.5%. Ex-auto sales were revised from -0.3% to -0.2%.
Additional measures
| Indicator | August | July |
|---|---|---|
| Retail sales y/y | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Sales excluding gasoline m/m | 1.1% | -0.6% |
| Sales excluding autos and gasoline m/m | 1.2% | -0.3% |
| Retail trade sales m/m | 1.2% | -0.7% |
Industry breakdown
| Category | August m/m |
|---|---|
| Gasoline stations | 3.1% |
| Nonstore retailers | 2.6% |
| Miscellaneous retailers | 1.9% |
| Electronics and appliances | 1.6% |
| Sporting goods, hobbies and books | 1.2% |
| Food services and drinking places | 1.2% |
| Motor vehicles and parts | 0.6% |
| Building materials and garden supplies | -0.2% |
| Department stores | -0.8% |
Key takeaways
- Headline retail sales rebounded from -0.5% to 1.2%, comfortably beating the 0.8% consensus.
- Ex-auto sales delivered the larger surprise, surging 1.4% against expectations of 0.6%.
- Higher fuel prices contributed, but the strength was not confined to gasoline. Sales excluding gasoline rose 1.1%, while sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 1.2%.
- Spending gains extended across online retail, electronics, restaurants and several discretionary categories, pointing to broad consumer resilience.
- The figures measure nominal sales and are not adjusted for inflation, so stronger receipts do not translate directly into equally strong real consumption.
- The report does not alter expectations for today’s Fed hike, but it raises the bar for a dovish SEP and supports additional tightening beyond the immediate decision.
