GBP/JPY rose further to 213.75 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first with risk on the upside. On the upside, break of 213.75 will resume the rebound from 206.85, and target 217.45 resistance. However, firm break of 209.54 support will indicate that the rebound has completed, and bring retest of 206.85 low.
In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10. Strong support is expected from there to bring rebound. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 197.80.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 191.13) holds.
