Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1846; (P) 1.1903; (R1) 1.1940; More…
EUR/CHF’s break of 1.1888 support indicates short term topping at 1.2004, after rejection by 1.2 handle. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for pull back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1816). For now, such decline is seen as correcting the rise from 1.1445 only. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1445 to 1.2004 at 1.1790 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2004 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective trading in near term.
In the bigger picture, long term up trend in EUR/CHF is still in progress. Prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000 was already met but there is no sign of reversal yet. As long as 1.1445 support holds, we’d expect the up trend to extend to 2013 high at 1.2649 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.1445 will be an indicate of medium term reversal and will turn outlook bearish.
