NFP Viewed as Dovish but Not Disastrous, Dollar Declines
The August US non-farm payroll report has been interpreted as largely dovish by the markets. Job growth showed clear signs of slowing, but the slight decrease in the unemployment rate has helped ease immediate recession fears. As a result, market expectations for a 50 bps rate cut by Fed...
Markets Brace for NFP Impact as Yen Rally Gains Momentum
The financial markets are in a state of heightened anticipation as the much-awaited US non-farm payroll report is set to release today. This key data set will be critical in assessing whether the US economy is veering towards a recession, following the jump in the unemployment rate in July....
Weak ADP Fails to Spark Sustained Dollar Selloff, Gold Approaches Record
Dollar bears attempted to push the greenback lower following the release of much weaker-than-expected ADP employment data, but the downward momentum lacked conviction. Traders remain cautious, given that ADP data has not consistently aligned with non-farm payrolls, leaving room for surprises when the NFP is released tomorrow. Furthermore, today's...
Weak JOLTS Data Hits Dollar, But Stock Investors Hold Their Bets
Dollar weakened broadly overnight after the latest JOLTS report showed significant drop in job openings, hitting the lowest level since January 2021. Economists are increasingly worried that the US labor market is cooling not just to pre-pandemic levels but potentially beyond. Such outlook could raising the possibility that the...
Cautious Sentiment Limits Market Moves Despite Risk Aversion
Risk aversion continues to dominate the global financial markets today, although the weakness in US futures has been relatively contained. While some volatility could arise from the US JOLTS labor market data, traders would largely be holding off for tomorrow's ISM services data and Friday’s non-farm payroll report. As...
Markets Shaken by US Recession Fears, BoC Rate Cut Awaited
Risk aversion swept across US markets overnight, with the selloff extending into Asian trading, driven by renewed fears of a recession. Weak US manufacturing data brought economic concerns back into focus, leading to a sharp 600-point drop in DOW and a more than 3.2% plunge in NASDAQ. The negative...
Risk-Off Sentiment Grips Markets Ahead of Key US Data Release
Yen staged a notable rebound today, joined by Dollar and Swiss Franc. In contrast, Australian Dollar is leading losses among commodity currencies. Risk-off mood appears to be taking hold, which is also evident in US futures, which point to a lower open as American markets return from the Labor...
Dollar Firm Ahead of ISM Manufacturing; Swiss GDP and CPI Also in Spotlight
Dollar is trading with a slightly firm tone this week, though overall forex market activity has been relatively subdued. It's worth noting that last month's sharp selloff in US stocks was actually started with disappointing ISM manufacturing data, which was then exacerbated by the non-farm payrolls report. Given this...
Yen Slide Intensifies, More Downside Likely Ahead
In relatively quiet market environment, Japanese Yen is coming under increasing pressure, with notable selloff driven by rising benchmark yields in the US and Europe. With major European stock indexes largely flat and the US and Canadian markets closed for a holiday, the Yen's decline has gained momentum. Several...
Forex Markets Await Direction with Key US Economic Data on the Horizon
In a typical Monday’s Asian trading session, the forex markets remained relatively subdued, with only modest movements observed. A mild sense of risk aversion was noted in the stock markets of Hong Kong and China, which exerted slight downward pressure on commodity currencies. This sentiment was largely driven by...
Rate Cut Hopes Eclipse Recession Concerns, Dollar Tracks Rising Yields
In the final week of August, financial markets delivered unexpected developments that caught many by surprise. Investor sentiment decisively shifted towards a risk-on approach, propelling major indices like DOW and DAX to new record highs. This optimism was largely driven by expectations of forthcoming monetary easing from key central...
Dollar Edges Up in Quiet Month-End Trading, Canada GDP and Eurozone CPI Shrugged Off
Dollar is showing mild strength in early US session despite slightly disappointing PCE inflation data. While the data reinforces the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in September, it does little to support the case for a more aggressive 50bps cut.
The greenback is getting a slightly...
Resilient Risk Sentiment Limits Dollar Rebound, Eurozone and US Inflation Reports Take Center Stage
Trading activity was notably subdued in the final Asian session of the week and August, but with a busy economic calendar ahead, volatility could pick up soon. Euro remains the weakest performer of the week, as the broad slowdown in inflation, reflected in data from Germany, Spain, Belgium, and...
Euro Sinks as Weak Inflation Data Bolsters Case for Faster ECB Rate Cuts
Euro fell notably in European session today, as inflation data from both Germany and Spain significantly underperformed expectations. The rapid deceleration in price pressures strengthens the argument for a September rate cut by ECB. With inflation slowing faster than anticipated, there is growing speculation that ECB could have the...
Kiwi Rallies on Strong Confidence Data, Nvidia’s Underwhelming Forecast Weighs on NASDAQ
New Zealand Dollar made significant gains in Asian session today, boosted by unexpectedly strong business confidence data from New Zealand. In retrospect, RBNZ's unexpected rate cut just two weeks ago now appears to be a timely and strategic move, welcomed by Kiwi traders. By initiating the policy easing cycle...
Euro Under Siege as Dollar Stages Recovery
Euro is facing significant selling pressure today, with its recent decline gaining momentum. Fresh data from ECB paints a grim picture: bank lending growth in July was notably sluggish, failing to meet even historical averages. Meanwhile, money growth, which had shown signs of improvement in prior months, remained stagnant...
Aussie Rises on Inflation Beat, Ethereum Takes a Sharp Dive
Australian Dollar rose broadly in the Asian session following the release of stronger-than-expected inflation data. The slight slowdown in inflation wasn't as pronounced as markets had anticipated, reinforcing RBA's stance that it is not yet ready to cut interest rates. While the data does reduce the urgency for another...
Euro Slips as German Recession Fears Mount, Aussie Awaits CPI
Euro weakened broadly today, weighed down by growing recession concerns in Germany. The Eurozone's largest economy confirmed -0.1% contraction in GDP in Q2. Consumer sentiment showing deeper-than-expected deterioration, particularly in economic expectations. This decline follows weak Ifo business climate released yesterday. The string of negative data points suggests that...
Swiss Franc and Loonie Lead as Geopolitical Tensions Keep Forex Markets in Check
Trading in the forex markets continued to be relatively subdued, as the initial buzz surrounding a Fed rate cut in September is quickly dissipating. Although there is still some speculation about the possibility of a more aggressive 50bps cut to kick off the easing cycle, the repeated reassurances from...
Libya and Middle East Tensions Drive Oil Surge
Geopolitical events dominate market movements today amid a sparse economic calendar. Oil prices have surged following an announcement from Libya’s eastern government in Benghazi that oil production and exports would be halted. This move stems from a dispute with the internationally recognized western government in Tripoli over central bank...