China posted solid production but weak retail sales data

    After a delay amid the 20th Communist Party Congress last week, China released a batch of economic data today.

    GDP grew 3.9% yoy in Q3, and beat expectation of 3.3% yoy. In September, industrial grew 6.3% yoy, faster than August’s 4.2% yoy, and beat expectation of 4.9% yoy. Retail sales, however, rose only 2.5% yoy, slowed from August’s 5.4% yoy, and missed expectation of 3.1% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 5.9% ytd yoy, below expectation of 6.0%.

    Also released, in USD term, exports rose 10.7% yoy in September. Imports rose 0.3% yoy. Trade surplus widened from USD 79.4B to USD 84.0B, above expectation of USD 81B.

    Japan refrains from commenting on currency intervention

      Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki declined to confirm if there was intervention in the currency markets last Friday. But he reiterated, “we cannot tolerate excessive volatility caused by speculative moves, and we are ready to take necessary steps when needed…. we are in a situation where we are confronting speculative moves strictly.”

      Masato Kanda, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs also said, “we won’t comment” on whether Japan will intervene gain. He said, “we will take appropriate steps against excessive volatility 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.”

      Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno also said, “we refrain from commenting specifically on any currency intervention”.

      Japan PMI composite rose to 51.7, but manufacturing struggles

        Japan PMI Manufacturing ticked down from 50.8 to 50.7 in October, weakest in 21 months. PMI Manufacturing Output improved slightly from 48.3 to 48.7. PMI Services rose from 52.2 to 53.0. PMI Composite also rose from 51.0 to 51.7.

        Laura Denman, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Latest flash PMI data has pointed to a further improvement in Japan’s private sector economy in October… The manufacturing sector, however, continued to struggle in the face of weak demand conditions and severe cost pressures… With inflationary pressures remaining elevated across the private sector, business confidence dipped to a six-month low.”

        Full release here.

        RBA Kent: Depreciation in AUD will have very modest uplift in prices

          RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said in a speech, “The Board expects to increase interest rates further in the period ahead, given the need to establish a more sustainable balance of demand and supply and in the face of a very tight labour market.” The “size and timing” of rate increases will depend on “incoming data” and “outlook for inflation and the labour market.”

          Kent also said the appreciation of the US dollar will “add to the cost of imports for a time” because much the global trade is invoices in it. At the same time, rise in US interest rates will also “contribute to a decline in global inflation pressures”. The depreciation of Australia’s nominal trade-weighted exchange rate over the year to date will contribute only a “very modest uplift in the level of consumer prices over the period ahead”.

          Full speech here.

          Australia PMI composite dropped to 49.6, renewed contraction

            Australia PMI Manufacturing dropped from 53.5 to 52.8 in October, a 14-month low. PMI Services dropped from 50.6 to 49.0, a 9-month low. PMI Composite dropped from 50.9 to 49.6, a 9-month low.

            Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

            “Australia’s private sector saw renewed contraction in October with the service sector primarily showing signs of stress. A fall in demand for services was underpinned by higher interest rates and prices, altogether reflective of the detriments of aggressive monetary policy tightening and capacity constraints upon business activity.

            “Although input price inflation declined in October, output price inflation climbed in the private sector according to the PMI data suggesting that price pressures have yet to ease steadily. A tight labour market also indicates that wage inflation may persist.

            “Overall business confidence meanwhile continued to trend lower in October to the weakest since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020, which is not a positive sign for the Australian economy.”

            Full release here.

            Japan finally intervenes at correcting timing

              Well, timing is everything. While Japan was quiet most of the day as USD/JPY marched higher, intervention finally came in early US session and knocks USD/JPY back below 150. In the background, Dollar was already under some pressure as stocks rebound strongly from early loss and turn black. 10-year yield also open dips after hitting as high as 4.333 with a strong open.

              Now, let’s seen if there would be some support for USD/JPY as it approaches 4 hour 55 EMA at 148.39.

              Canada retail sales rose 0.7% mom in Aug, well above expectations

                Canada retail sales rose 0.7% mom to CAD 61.8B in August, much better than expectation of 0.2% mom rise. Sales increased in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 65% of retail trade. Excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts, sales also rose 0.9% mom, large increase since march.

                In volume terms retail sales were up 1.1% mom.

                Based on advance estimate, dales decreased -0.5% mom in September.

                Full release here.

                UK retail sales volume down -1.4% mom in Sep, value down -0.5% mom

                  UK retail sales volume dropped -1.4% mom in September, much worse than expectation of -0.5% mom. Sales values dropped -1.4% mom too. On a year earlier, sales volumes dropped -6.9% yoy while sales value rose 3.8% yoy.

                  Excluding fuel, sales volumes dropped -1.5% mom while sales values dropped -0.4% mom. On a year earlier, sales volume was down -6.2% yoy while sales value was up 3.3% yoy.

                  Comparing with pre-coronavirus level in February 2020, total retail sales were 12.0% higher in value terms but volumes were -1.3% lower.

                  Full release here.

                  Japan Suzuki: We are confronting speculators strictly

                    Japan stepped up verbal intervention as USD/JPY breaks above 150 level. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned today, “we are confronting speculators strictly.”

                    Yet, when asked if Yen was under attack by speculators, Suzuki said, “it’s inappropriate for me to comment on such a question under the current circumstances.”

                    Regarding BoJ policy, he said, “I’m not in a position to comment anything concrete. We’ll strive to maintain fiscal discipline with a major target of achieving primary budget surplus in fiscal 2025.”

                    NZ exports rose 37.% yoy in Sep, imports rose 16% yoy

                      New Zealand good exports rose 37% yoy or NZD 1.6B to NZD 6B in September. Goods imports rose 16% yoy or NZD 1.1B to NZD 7.6B. Monthly trade balance reported a deficit of NZD -1.6B.

                      Exports to all major trading partners were up, including China (+31% yoy), Australia (+33% yoy), USA (+13% yoy), EU (+21% yoy), and Japan (+42% yoy).

                      Imports from all major trading partners rose, except EU, including China (+20% yoy), EU (-5.3% yoy), Australia (+11% yoy), USA (+26% yoy), and Japan (+14% yoy).

                      Full release here.

                      Japan CPI core rose to 3% yoy in Sep

                        Japan headline CPI was unchanged at 3.0% yoy in September, below expectation of 3.1% yoy. CPI core (all items ex-fresh food) accelerated from 2.8% yoy to 3.0% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core-core (all items ex-fresh food and energy) accelerated from 1.6% to 1.8% yoy, below expectation of 2.0% yoy.

                        CPI core has now exceeded BoJ’s target for the 6th straight months, and hit the highest level since 1991 (excluding the effect of the 2014 sales tax hike). CPI core-core was also at the highest level since 2015. Yet, BoJ is seeing inflation as mostly driven by imports rather than domestic price pressures. This could be reflected in the 5.6% yoy rise in goods prices, and the sluggish 0.2% yoy rise in services prices.

                        Fed Cook: Ongoing rate hikes required to bring inflation down

                          Fed Governor Lisa Cook said, “Inflation is too high, it must come down and we will keep at it until the job is done. This likely will require ongoing rate hikes and then keeping policy restrictive for some time.”

                          “Policy must be based on whether we see inflation actually falling in the data, rather than just in forecasts. Policy should remain focused on restoring price stability, which will also set the foundation for a sustainably strong labor market,” she said.

                          Fed Harker: Interest will be well above 4% by year-end

                            Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday, “We are going to keep raising rates for a while. Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year.”

                            “Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates. At that point, I think we should hold at a restrictive rate for a while to let monetary policy do its work,” he said. “It will take a while for the higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy. After that, if we have to, we can tighten further, based on the data.”

                            US initial jobless claims dropped to 214k

                              US initial jobless claims dropped -12k to 214k in the week ending October 15, lower than expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 212k.

                              Continuing claims rose 21k to 1385k in the week ending October 8. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2k to 1365k.

                              Full release here.

                              BoE Broadbent: Energy price guarantee’s inflationary effect outweighs limiting inflation

                                BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said in a speech that firstly, “for as long as it’s in place, the government’s Energy Price Guarantee has the effect of limiting headline inflation and, to that extent, any related strengthening of second-round (and more persistent) effects on domestic inflation.”

                                Secondly, “by the same token, however, it mitigates the severity of the hit to household incomes and thereby supports domestic demand,” he added. “As the Committee noted last month, this would – all else equal – add to inflation in the medium term.”

                                “Compared with the forecast we had in August, the MPC has judged that the second effect is likely to outweigh the first,” he said.

                                But Broadbent added, there is uncertainty about the “nature and duration” of the energy subsidies. “The MPC will take account of any fiscal news in the forthcoming Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, as well as any other news relevant for the medium-term inflation outlook, in its next set of forecasts,” he said.

                                Full speech here.

                                Japan exports rose 28.9% yoy in Sep, imports surged 45.2% yoy

                                  Japan’s exports rose 28.9% yoy to JPY 8189B in September. Exports to China grew 17.1% yoy while shipments to the US increased 45.2% yoy. Imports rose 45.9% yoy to JPY 10913B. However, the surge in import was unlikely a reflection of domestic demand, but sharp depreciation in Yen’s exchanged rate. Trade deficit came in at JPY -2094B, down from August’s record high of JPY -2817B

                                  In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 3.2% mom to JPY 8672B. Imports dropped -0.6% mom to JPY 10682B. Trade deficit narrowed to JPY -2010B, slightly smaller than expectation of JPY -2.06T.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Australia employment grew 0.9k in Sep, unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%

                                    Australia employment rose 0.9k in September, below expectation of 25.0k. Full-time employment increased by 13.3k while part0time employment contracted -12.4k.

                                    Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%, matched expectations. Participation rate was unchanged at 66.6%. Monthly hours worked dropped -1m hours to 1853 hours.

                                    “It is important to remember that the 1,000 employed people is a net figure – the difference between two large numbers. While employment growth has slowed in recent months, there are still close to half a million people entering employment each month, and around the same number leaving employment each month,” Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Fed Evans: We need to continue on the path we’ve been indicating

                                      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, “inflation is just much too high, and so we need to continue on the path that we’ve been indicating — at least that. And I’m hopeful that that will be enough.”

                                      “Continued increases in the funds rate along the lines of our September SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) could lead to a economic outlook where we’re going to see below-trend growth — we’ll be challenged in that regard — we’ll see the unemployment rate go up, but I think that it won’t take off,” Evans said.

                                      “I think if we have to increase the path of the funds rate much more, though, it really does begin to weigh on the economy. I worry that it’s sort of a nonlinear kind of event.”

                                      Fed Bullard: Goal is to raise rates to some meaningfully restrictive level

                                        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that Fed’s goal is to front-load aggressive rate hikes to move to “some meaningfully restrictive level” that would push inflation down.

                                        For November meeting, Bullard said the results “has been more or less priced in to markets” for a 75 basis-point hike, even though he’d prefer to decide at the meting. As for December, didn’t want to “prejudge”.

                                        Then, in 2023, “I think we’ll be closer to the point where we can run what I would call ordinary monetary policy,” he said. “Now you’re at the right level of the policy rate, you’re putting downward pressure on inflation, but you can adjust as the data come in in 2023.”

                                        Fed Kashkari: I can’t see how I would recommend pausing interest rate increases

                                          Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that while headline inflation may have peaked, there is no evidence that core inflation has stopped climbing. So, “I can’t see how I would recommend pausing interest rate increases,” he added.

                                          “My best guess right now is yes, do I think inflation is going to level out over the next few months, the services, the core inflation, and then that would position us some time next year to potentially pause,” he added.

                                          “I’ve seen very little evidence in my region that the labor market is softening,” Kashkari said. “The No. 1 issue I hear from businesses small and large is that they’re struggling to find workers, how they’re having to pay more wages to keep their employees and to attract employees.”