EU von der Leyen: Well prepared for a no-deal Brexit scenario

    European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said there were “genuine progress” in post-Brexit negotiations with the UK. She emphasized that “the next days are going to be decisive,” on whether a deal could be clinched.

    “With very little time ahead of us, we will do all in our power to reach an agreement. We are ready to be creative. But we are not ready to put into question the integrity of our single market,” she added.

    “We need to establish robust mechanisms, ensuring that competition is – and remains – free and fair over time. In the discussions about state aid, we still have serious issues, for instance when it comes to enforcement,” said von der Leyen.

    She also reiterated, “the European Union is well prepared for a no-deal-scenario, but of course we prefer to have an agreement.”

    ECB Mersch: Recalibration could be rectification or more targeted and focused

      ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch said in an interview that the second coronavirus lockdown in European has been “much less growth-damaging and much more targeted “. Still there is an “increase in fragmentation”, with divergence between services and manufacturing sectors. Some countries are more exposed to the pandemic consequences.

      Overall, it’s “difficult to maintain positive growth going into the fourth quarter”. Germany might achieve it but others not. But it’s “premature to conclude that will last into next year with consecutive quarters of negative growth.

      On ECB’s policies, Mersch said recalibration could be rectification, “simply an extension “on the time axis” or “of the volume or the intensity”. A second approach is “more targeted, or more focused, or on the contrary consider now untested instruments, a theoretical possibility in an all encompassing discussion.”

      Full interview here.

      RBNZ Orr: Financial system not been tested as severely as it could have been

        RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the New Zealand economy has been “relatively resilient” to the economic shock from the pandemic so far. The financial system “has not been tested as severely as it could have been”. However, he warned, “businesses domestically and internationally face ongoing challenges as fiscal support measures unwind, which will lead to an increase in loan impairments for banks.”

        On the topic of house prices, Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said, “high leverage in the housing sector poses risks if house prices fall sharply or unemployment rises, reducing the ability to service loans”. Hence, RBNZ “intends to re-impose LVR restrictions to guard against continued growth in high-risk lending and ensure that banks remain resilient to a future housing market downturn.”

        Fed Williams: Bond purchases serving their purposes really well right now

          New York Fed President John Williams said yesterday that the asset purchases are “serving their purposes really well right now”. The purchases are providing support for smooth market conditions, as well as holding down longer-term yields. The program could be adjusted if needed, but he gave no indication for the need of imminent change. .

          On negative interest rates, Williams said they are “a possible option but I think have less benefits relative to costs. Forward guidance and asset purchases would continued to be the “primary tools for policy”.

          Separately, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said “there’s light at the end of the tunnel” with vaccine developments. “In terms of being able to see the end of the crisis, that’s very much a realistic view at this point.”

          DOW broke 30k as investors welcome Yellen as US treasury secretary

            US stocks broke out of range overnight to extend recent record run, with DOW closing at all time high at 30046.24, up 1.54%. Investors cheered the news that former Fed Chair Janet Yellen was picked by Joe Biden as the next Treasury Secretary. Yellen’s position on loose fiscal policy was clear, as she support continuation of extraordinary fiscal support, beyond necessary. Also, as Fed’s interest will stay low for many years to come, the government can afford to have more debt.

            With the current rally resumption, DOW is now close to 38.2% projection of 18213.65 to 29119.35 at 26143.77 at 30340.30. Sustained break there will be seen as a vote of confidence on the sustainability of the up trend, and pave the way to 61.8% projection at 32932.93 next. However, rejection by this projection level, would turn focus back to 55 day EMA (now at 28333.92) instead.

            US consumer confidence dropped to 96.1, not foreseeing strength in economy next year

              US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 96.1 in November, down from 101.4, missed expectation of 98.3. Present Situation Index dropped from 106.2 to 105.9. Expectations Index dropped notably from 98.2 to 89.5.

              “Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, though consumers noted a moderation in business conditions, suggesting growth has slowed in Q4. Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook.”

              Full release here.

              BoE Haskel: there will be long-term scarring effects even if vaccine comes

                BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel said recent vaccine development offered some light at the end of the tunnel for the UK. However, even if the vaccine comes, there will be “long-term scarring” effects. Such effects are hard to scale for now.

                Haskel also said the central is not running out of policy tools. It still have plenty that can be down in terms of firepower.

                Germany Ifo business climate dropped to 90.7 expectations plunged on return of pandemic uncertainty

                  Germany Ifo Business Climate dropped to 90.7 in November, down from 92.7, missed expectation of 90.8. Current Assessment index dropped slightly to 90.0, down from 90.3, above expectation of 97.4. Expectations index plunged sharply to 91.5, down from 95.0, missed expectation of 93.8.

                  Ifo said: “The drop was due above all to companies’ considerably more pessimistic expectations. Their assessments of the current situation were also a little worse. Business uncertainty has risen. The second wave of coronavirus has interrupted Germany’s economic recovery.”

                  Full release here.

                  Germany Q3 GDP finalized at 8.5% qoq, still -4% below pre-pandemic level

                    Germany’s Q3 GDP growth was finalized at 8.5% qoq. A large part of the “massive decline” in Q2 was offset. But the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was still -4.0% lower in the Q3 of 2020 than in the Q4 of 2019

                    Full release here.

                    NZD/USD and NZD/JPY surge as traders pare RBNZ expectations

                      New Zealand Dollar surges broadly today as traders pare bet on RBNZ negative rates, after the government urged the central bank to take ” rapid escalation in house prices” into consideration. NZD/USD’s rally from 0.5469 continues and it’s on track to 61.8% projection of 0.5920 to 0.6797 from 0.6589 at 0.7131 next. IN any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6797 resistance turned support holds.

                      NZD/JPY is somewhat lagging NZD/UISD from medium term point of view. Nevertheless, as rise from 59.49 extends, decisive break of 73.53 structural resistance will carry larger bullish implications. NZD/JPY could target 61.8% retracement of 94.01 to 59.49 at 80.82 in medium term.

                      NZ Robertson urged RBNZ to contribute to a stable housing market

                        New Zealand Finance Minister Grant Robertson urged RBNZ to include house price stability as part of its broad monetary remit. The triggered speculations that the central bank would refrain from launching another round of massive stimulus, including negative interest rates.

                        In a letter to RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, Robertson said he’s concerned with “recent rapid escalation in house prices, and forecasts for this to continue”. He’s also “concerned about the potential that these price increases may present a financial stability risk to the economy, particularly when monetary policy returns to more normal settings.”

                        “With an extended period of low interest rates, and some time before housing supply can catch up with demand, now is the time to consider how the Reserve Bank may contribute to a stable housing market,” he added. “Undertaking this work is not to suggest the Reserve Bank bears responsibility for house prices, but simply that it should have regard to something that is influenced by monetary policy.”

                        Orr said RBNZ will consider the government’s suggestion. At the same time “”there are many long-term, structural issues at play.”

                        RBA Debelle: Decline in interest rates across yield curve has lowered exchange rate

                          In a speech, RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said the comprehensive package of measures implemented through this year “has materially lowered the structure of interest rates in the Australian financial system”. Additionally, “the decline in interest rates across the yield curve has lowered the exchange rate, relative to what it otherwise would be.”

                          He acknowledged that the news about vaccines “should help bolster that confidence”. But recovery will be “uneven”. “It is likely to be some time before the vaccines will be widely available and distributed.”

                          Full speech here.

                          BoJ Kuroda: Japan isn’t heading toward deflation

                            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament that there is no need to “overhaul our projections” despite resurgence of coronavirus infections globally. The central bank forecasts the economy to contract -5.5% in the fiscal year ending March 2021, then expand 3.6% in the following year.

                            “Our view is that Japan isn’t heading toward deflation, though we’re watching developments in service consumption and capital expenditure carefully,” he added.

                            Kuroda also said, “there is no need now to review our policy framework. But there could be debate at an appropriate timing in the future.”

                            Fed Evans: No Rate hike probably even in 2024

                              Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said there is still “quite a long way to go” for the US economy to recovery from the pandemic crisis. He didn’t expect inflation to reach 2% targe4t until late 2022 or even 20223. Hence, “we are not expecting the funds rate to be raised before 2023 – probably late, maybe even 2024 in my opinion,” he said.

                              He also noted, “in the past the Fed has not put enough weight on valuing getting inflation to 2% and above”. Fed should get core inflation up to 2.5%, and, “I don’t think we should get involved in trying to fine-tune the overshoot…I would be surprised if we were to seek to increase interest rates sooner than 2023, given the objectives that we’ve laid out.”

                              Gold downside breakout, heading to 1750

                                Gold’s selloff today finally pushes it to a downside break out. For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1879.75 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1848.39 support will confirm resumption of whole decline from 2075.18. Such fall is seen as a correction to the long term up trend from 1160.17. Next medium term target will be 55 week EMA (now at 1750.89). Though, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1160.17 to 2075.18 at 1725.64 to contain downside. Meanwhile, break of 1879.75 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn outlook neutral first.

                                US PMI composite rose to 57.9, 68-month high, very encouraging reading

                                  US PMI Manufacturing rose to 56.7 in November, up from 53.4, a 74-month high. PMI Services rose to 57.7, up from 56.9, a 68-month high. PMI Composite rose to 57.9, up from 56.3, a 68-month high.

                                  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                                  “The November PMI surveys provide the first post-election snapshot of the US economy, and makes for very encouraging reading, though stronger economic growth is quite literally coming at a price.

                                  “First the good news: business activity across both manufacturing and services rose in November at the strongest rate since March 2015. The upturn reflected a further strengthening of demand, which in turn encouraged firms to take on staff at a rate not previously seen since the survey began in 2009.

                                  “However, the surge in demand and hiring has pushed prices and wages higher. Average selling prices for goods and services rose at the fastest rate yet recorded by the survey, with shortages of supplies also more widespread than at any time previously reported.

                                  “Firms are scrambling for inputs and workers to meet the recent growth of demand, and to meet rising future workloads. Expectations about the year ahead have surged to the most optimistic for over six years, reflecting the combination of a post-election lift to confidence and encouraging news that vaccines may allow a return to more normal business conditions in the not too distant future.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoE Haldane: Reasonable to speak of 2021 as turning a leaf

                                    BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane said, “the vaccine announcements of the past few weeks offer hope at the end of the tunnel”. However, “even with a vaccine, it’s clear this crisis will lead to some lasting scars, particularly on the poorest and the most disadvantaged.”

                                    Haldane added that around two-thirds of pandemic economic loss had been recouped so far. “It’s now reasonable and realistic to speak of next year as turning a leaf for us economically,” he said.”

                                    UK PMI Composite dropped to 47.4, double-dip recession

                                      UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 55.2 in November, up from October’s 53.7, well above expectation of 50.5, and hit a 3-month high. PMI Services, however, dropped sharply to 45.8, down from 51.4, hitting a 6-month low but beat expectation of 42.5. The results pushed PMI Composite to 47.4, down from 52.1, a 6-month low.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “A double-dip is indicated by the November survey data, with lockdown measures once again causing business activity to collapse across large swathes of the economy… Some comfort comes from the data suggesting that the impact of the lockdown has not been as severe as in the spring, and manufacturing has also received a significant boost from inventory building and a surge in exports ahead of the UK’s departure from the EU at the end of the year, providing a fillip for many companies. However, while the lockdown will be temporary, so too will this pre-Brexit boost.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 45.1, plunged back into a severe decline

                                        Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped to 53.6 in November, down from 54.8, a 3-month low but above expectation of 53.1. PMI Services dropped to 41.3, down from 46.9, a 6-month low and missed expectation of 42.5. PMI Composite dropped to 45.1, down from 50.0, also a 6-month low.

                                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The eurozone economy has plunged back into a severe decline in November amid renewed efforts to quash the rising tide of COVID-19 infections. The data add to the likelihood that the euro area will see GDP contract again in the fourth quarter…. The further downturn of the economy signalled for the fourth quarter represents a major set-back to the region’s health and extends the recovery period. After a 7.4% contraction of GDP in 2020, we are expecting only a 3.7% expansion in 2021.”

                                        Full release here.

                                        Germany PMI composite dropped to 52.0, resilient manufacturing

                                          Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped to 57.9 in November, down from October’s 58.2, above expectation of 56.5. . PMI Services dropped to 46.2, down from 49.6, a 6-month low, similar to expectation of 46.3. . PMI Composite dropped to 52.0, down from 55.0, a 5-month low.

                                          Phil Smith, Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “As expected, the introduction of new lockdown measures in November to combat the spread of COVID-19 has had a disruptive impact on German economic activity, with the flash PMI data showing the service sector suffering its worst performance since May. However, the resilience being exhibited by the manufacturing sector, which the survey shows is benefitting for growing sales to Asia in particular, supports our view that any downturn in the final quarter is expected to be far shallower than those seen in the first half of the year.”

                                          Full release here.