BoE Ramsden sees 0.1% as effective lower bound in interest rates

    Sterling is given a lift by BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden’s comment in an interview with the Society of Profession Economists. He said, “for me, I see the effective lower bound still at 0.1 which is where Bank Rate is at present”. And, “we are not about to use negative rates imminently.”

    Negatives rates are “in the toolbox” and BoE is just “duty bound” to explore in more details the operational considerations. Engagement with banks on negative rates will “take time”.

    On the economy, he said that the central cases sees GDP “recovering steadily” but there are “real uncertainties and risks”, from the pandemic, Brexit and the US election. BoE is “ready to act further if needed”.

    Swiss Q2 GDP contraction revised up to -7.3% on benchmark revision

      Swiss GDP contraction in Q2 was revised to -7.3%, up from -8.2%, after “benchmark revision” based on international recommendations” . SECO noted, though, “he interpretation of this data from an economic perspective is remaining largely unchanged.”

      “As well as the decision to ease public health restrictions relatively early, the industry mix in the Swiss economy also helped to prevent an even more drastic slump in GDP,” SECO added. In particular, the 0.3% increase in chemical and pharmaceutical industry stabilized the result for manufacturing as a whole:.

      Still, demand fell across the board, with private consumption down 08.1% in the wake of the pandemic and the containment measures. Equipment investment dropped -10.0%. Exports dropped -6.5% while services dropped -15.3%.

      Full release here.

      BoE Tenreyro: Evidence of negative rates has been encouraging

        BoE policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said in a Sunday Telegraph interview that the evidence from negative interest rates in Eurozone and Japan “has been encouraging”. Negative rates had succeeded in lowering companies’ borrowing costs while maintaining bank’s profitability.

        “There has been almost full pass-through of negative rates into lending rates in most countries,” she added. “Banks adapted well – their profitability increased with negative rates largely because impairments and loss provisions have decreased with the boost to activity and the increase in asset prices.”

        The V-shaped recovery in the UK economy is threatened by resurgence of infections locally, and a weak global economy. “Flare-ups like we’re seeing may potentially lead to more localized lockdowns and will keep interrupting that V,” she said. “Another factor interrupting the V is a very weak global outlook, with high uncertainties, particularly with a second wave already striking many countries.”

        ECB Visco: Euro strengthening is worrying us

          ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said “the euro’s recent strengthening is worrying us because it generates further downward pressures on prices at a time when inflation is already low.”

          “The monetary policy implications are obvious: if the downward pressures jeopardise our price stability objective, we’ll have to intervene,” he added. “If, however, opposite effects were to emerge, the measures we’ve already taken could suffice.”

          ECB de Cos, Euro movements mean no room for complacency in monetary policy

            ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos told Spanish news paper La Razon that inflation is foreseen to stay well below target. Recent appreciation in Euro’s exchange rate means there is “no room for complacency”. Significant monetary stimulus should stay in place.

            He added that it’s crucial to stay flexible with the execution of quantitative easing program to avoid fragmentation in the financial markets. Also, more actions should be made should they be needed.

            US durable goods orders rose 0.4%, ex-transport orders rose 0.4%

              US durable goods orders rose 0.4% mom in August to USD 232.8B, below expectation of 1.2% mom. That was still the fourth straight month of increase nonetheless. Ex-transport orders rose 0.4% mom, also missed expectation of 1.2% mom. Excluding defense, orders rose 0.7% mom. Machinery led the increase by 1.5% mom.

              Full release here.

              Villeroy: ECB ready to accept inflation above 2% for some time

                ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the central bank “has frequently re-affirmed its commitment to symmetry” of its inflation target. As a result, “we might be ready to accept inflation higher than 2% for some time.” Still, “we should examine whether the current formulation casts doubt on this.”

                Villeroy also dismissed chatter that it’s running out of ammunition. “If needed, the ECB has ample room for maneuver,” he said. “Have no doubt about our determination to act as much as needed, and about our capacity to act.”

                UK Gfk consumer confidence rose to -25, but only an unbridled optimist will bet on further rise

                  UK Gfk Consumer Confidence rose to -25 in September, up from -27. German Economic Situation index over the next 12 month rose 4 pts to -38. Major Purchase index also rose 4 pts to -21. But Personal Financial Situation over the next 12 months was unchanged at 1.

                  Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “Consumer confidence has crept forward for nearly four months in a row now, but can this fragile improvement last or is it about to come to a grinding halt?… Consumers are as jittery as stock markets right now and as the UK government puts the brakes back on – and there may be more to come – only an unbridled optimist will bet on confidence climbing further.”

                  Full release here.

                  Fed Barkin: Recent pick up in inflation just a natural rebound

                    Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in a speech, while inflation has run below the 2% target it is “not that far-off target”. “With rounding, you could even call it on target.” The new framework allows “only a moderate” overshoot in inflation. “That moderation limits the risk of de-anchoring while sending a positive signal on inflation.”

                    He added that recent pick up in inflation is “just a natural rebound from a deflationary second quarter.”. While it’s possible that inflation could escalate in the near future, “I have to say I’m less worried about that possibility.” And, should inflation emerge, the Fed has the tools and the will to address it.”

                    Barkin’s full speech here.

                    Fed Evans: More fiscal relief needed to limit further damage to households and businesses

                      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned, “we are taking a very serious and unnecessary risk if we do not extend federal assistance to out-of-work households.” He added, “the potential hole in aggregate demand may be large, and in my view more fiscal relief is needed in order to limit further damage to households and businesses, especially those in vulnerable communities.”

                      “The longer the dual challenges of the pandemic and recession continue, the greater is the risk of deepening the already stark inequities in our economy,” he added.

                      New York Fed President John Williams said, “Structural inequality stifles growth, but there is no single silver bullet that can solve the problems laid bare by the pandemic”. “There is so much work that needs to be done to make sure that we are fostering an equitable recovery and ensuring that everyone is able to fulfill their economic potential,” he said.

                      Fed Bullard: Strong Q3 may put US economy at full recovery by year end

                        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the US economy may rebound at a 35% annualized rate in Q3. Additionally, the strong rebound in Q3 “may put the U.S. economy within reach of a sort of ‘full recovery’ by the end of 2020.” With another 10% growth in Q4, the national income could be in reach of 2019 average.

                        “These are big numbers, but not outside the realm of possibility,” he said. “I expect this rebound to continue in the U.S. as businesses learn how to produce products and services safely using simple, existing technology.”

                        Nevertheless, “Fed policy would be the same regardless of how optimistic or less optimistic you might be about the outlook,” he said. “I don’t think it’s that reasonable to expect a second-wave scenario to be the one that would dominate your forecasts.”

                         

                        ECB Lane: Containing the virus is the most important policy objective

                          In a twitter exchange, ECB chief economist Philip Lane emphasized “the first priority is to contain the virus – if there is a sustained surge in cases, this will damage consumer and investor confidence ”

                          “Containing the virus is the most important policy objective. Our baseline allows for some periodic resurgence of the virus until a full-scale medical solution is found,” he added.

                          “The baseline scenario in our staff projections indeed factors in that a medical solution is found over the course of next year. This would support a recovery in the service sector and put upward pressure on service sector inflation”.

                          Fed Rosengren: More QE not nearly as supporttive as fiscal policy

                            Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren told Yahoo Finance that he had “somewhat more pessimistic forecast” than his FOMC colleagues. He doesn’t expect unemployment rate to get below 6% by the end of next year.

                            He noted, “I am very worried that we’re pretty far away from what we think of maximum employment and I think they’re going to be significant headwinds to getting there quickly.”

                            On policy support, he noted that 10-year yield is below 70 basis points, “well below the lowest level” in the middle of the 2008/9 financial crisis. So, more quantitative easing might not be “nearly as supportive” as fiscal policy.

                            US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 870k, above expectation

                              US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 870k in the week ending September 19, above expectation of 850k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -35k to 878k.

                              Continuing claims dropped -167k to 12580k in the week ending September 12. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -478k to 13041k.

                              Full release here.

                              German Ifo edged higher to 93.4, economy stabilizing despite rising infection numbers

                                Germany Ifo Business Climate rose to 93.4 in September, up from 92.6, slightly below expectation of 93.8. Current Assessment rose to 89.2, up from 87.9, below expectation of 89.5. Expectations index rose to 97.7, up form 97.5, below expectation of 98.0. Ifo said: “The companies once again assessed their current situation as better than in the previous month. They also expect their business to recover further. The German economy is stabilizing despite rising infection numbers.”

                                Manufacturing has a noticeable increase from -5.6 to -0.2. However, Services dropped back from 7.7 to 6.9, fourth decline in a row. Trade turned positive, from -4.8 to 0.3. Construction also improved from 0.0 to 3.3.

                                Full release here.

                                SNB keeps negative rate at -0.75%, remains willing on FX intervention

                                  SNB left sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75% as widely expected. “In view of the fact that the Swiss franc is still highly valued, the SNB remains willing to intervene more strongly in the foreign exchange market, while taking the overall exchange rate situation into consideration.”.

                                  On inflation outlook, which is subject to “unusually high uncertainty”, SNB expects inflation to stay negative this year at -0.6%. Inflation is then likely to “edge back to positive” in 2021 at 0.1%, and “increase slightly further” in 2022 at 0.2%.

                                  SNB also noted that GDP is set to shrink by around -5% this year. But domestic economic activity has “picked up significantly since May”. That should be reflected in a “strong rise in GDP” in Q3. The positive development is “likely to continue in 2021. However, recovery will only be “partial for the time being”.

                                  Full statement here.

                                  New Zealand imports tumbled in Aug, exports showed contrasting movement

                                    New Zealand exports rose 8.6% yoy in NZD 4.4B in August. Imports, on the other hand, dropped sharply by -16% yoy to NZD 4.8B. The monthly trade balance was a deficit of NZD -353M, slightly larger than expectations.

                                    Imports were down from all top trading partners, including China, EU, Australia, USA and Japan. But there were contrasting movements in exports, up to China, USA and EU, but down to Australia and Japan.

                                    Full release here.

                                    BoJ minutes showed concern of coronavirus resurgence

                                      Minutes of BoJ’s July 14/15 meeting showed policymakers are concerned with resurgence of coronavirus in Japan. A few board members noted, “infection numbers are increasing at a faster pace globally, so we need to be on alert of the possibility of a re-insurgence including in Japan”. Another member warned, “if infection numbers rise again, the timing of an economic recovery will be delayed.”

                                      Overall, members agreed “the economy, with economic activity resuming, was likely to improve gradually from the second half of this year; however, the pace of improvement was expected to be only moderate while the impact of COVID-19 remained worldwide.”

                                      Full minutes here.

                                      Fed Quarles: Economy will take a long time to recover

                                        Fed Governor Randal Quarles said yesteday, “although we have seen the beginnings of a strong recovery, even optimistic forecasts suggest that it will take a long time to recover fully from this shock.”

                                        “By providing additional monetary policy accommodation through stronger, outcomes-based forward guidance, the hopes to quicken the pace of the recovery,” he added.

                                        Fed Evans not fear of 2.5% inflation or more

                                          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, “I do not fear stronger accommodation in the pursuit of clearly overshooting 2%, even to the point of 2-1/2, or even a little bit more”. Inflation at 2.5% for some time is “in the cards” if Fed is doing its job right.

                                          As for monetary policy, Evans said it’s premature to ramp up Fed’s asset purchases at this point. Fed should wait until the economy gets into better shape, including having unemployment closer to 6%, while consumers are more comfortable spending their money. When that happens, “we would have a better idea of the right amount of accommodation and the way to deliver it,” Evans said.