UK employment dropped -58k, largest contraction in four years

    UK total employment dropped -58k in the three months to September. That’s the biggest contraction in the job markets in four years, taking employment total down to 32.75m. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in September, down from 3.9%, and beat expectation of 3.9%. Unemployment also dropped -23k ti 1.31m. The set of data suggests that more people have dropped out of the labor market and stopped looking for work.

    Wage growth also slowed notably. Average weekly earnings including bonus rose 3.6% 3moy, missed expectation of 3.8% 3moy. Average weekly earnings excluding bonus also slowed to 3.6% 3moy, down from 3.8% 3moy, missed expectations.

    Full release here.

    RBNZ inflation expectations dropped, solidifying case for another rate cut

      In RBNZ’s quarterly Survey of Expectations report, inflation expectation for one year ahead dropped from 1.71% to 1.66%. Expectations for two years ahead also dropped from 1.86% to 1.80%. Mean expectation for the end of quarter OCR dropped from 1.32% to 0.79%. One year expectations also dropped form 1.13 to 0.61%.

      The release solidify the case for another RBNZ rate cut to 0.75% tomorrow. The key now is whether RBNZ would give any indication of easing bias, even after the cut. In particular, traders would look for phrase like “there is scope for further fiscal and monetary easing if necessary.”

      Full release here.

      Australia NAB business confidence and conditions improved, but further stimulus still likely needed

        Australia NAB Business Confidence rose from 0 to 2 in October. Business Conditions also rose from 2 to 3. NAB said “this month’s survey results continue to point to only modest outcomes in the business sector, though forward-looking indicators have improved slightly and may be pointing to a stabilisation in conditions.” Also, “acknowledging that the impact of recent rate cuts will take time to flow through the economy, it appears that the support provided by both fiscal and monetary policy this year has done little to offset the slowdown in the business sector.”

        Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, also said: “The business sector has lost significant momentum over the past year or so, putting at risk the optimism around business investment and possibly employment going forward. Overall, we see this as a demand driven issue with private sector demand the weakest since the GFC. It may well be the case that the economy needs further stimulus in addition to the monetary and fiscal support provided so far to support demand and see a lift in business activity and confidence”.

        Full release here.

        Sterling holding on to Farage triggered gains, but GBP/CHF range bound

          Sterling is holding on to yesterday’s strong gain today and remains the strongest one for the week. The Pound was lifted overnight after Brexit Partly leader Nigel Farage surprisingly announced not to filed any candidate to compete for the 317 seats held by the Conservatives. The decision came after Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged to take UK out of the EU by 2020 and to pursue a Canada-style trade deal.

          Farage added “I have got no great love for the Conservative party at all, but I can see right now that by giving Boris half a chance … and stopping the fanatics in the Liberal Democrats – they even want to revoke the result of the referendum – I think our action, our announcement today, prevents a second referendum from happening.”

          Despite the rally, GBP/CHF is staying in very tight range below 1.2892 temporary top. There is no rally resumption yet. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.2473 resistance turned support holds. Rise from 1.1674 is expected to target 1.3399 resistance at a later stage.

          Trump said to delay decision on EU auto tariffs by six months

            Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump could announce this week to delay the decision on Section 232 national security tariffs on EU autos by another six months. An unnamed EU official was quoted, “We have a solid indication from the administration that there will not be tariffs on us this week”.

            The news is in-line with recent comments from US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who indicated that such tariffs might not be necessary after “good conversations”. It’s also believed that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom have spoken often in recent weeks, with “positive” tone.

            Sterling jump as Brexit Party will not contest Conservative seats in election

              Sterling jumps broadly on Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage’s comment on election. He said he didn’t want anti-Brexit parties to win the upcoming election in December. Hence, his party would not contest the 317 Conservative Party seats.

              He said, “The Brexit Party will not contest the 317 seats the Conservatives won at the last election.” “But we will do is concentrate our total effort into all of the seats that are held by the Labour Party, who have completely broken their manifesto in 2017,” he said. “We will also take on the rest of the remainer parties.”

              UK GDP grew 0.3% in Q3, but production was flat only

                UK GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q3, matched expectations. Over the year, GDP grew 1.0% yoy in Q3, slowest quarter-on-year growth since Q1 2010. The service and construction sectors provided positive contributions to GDP growth, while output in the production sector was flat in Quarter 3 2019. Private consumption, government consumption and net trade contributed positively to GDP growth, while gross capital formation (GCF) contributed negatively to growth in the quarter.

                In September, GDP contracted -0.1% mom, matched expectations. Industrial production dropped -0.4% mom, -1.4% yoy, versus expectation of -0.1% mom, -1.2% yoy. Manufacturing production dropped -0.4% mom, -1.8% yoy, versus expectation of -0.2% mom, -1.3% yoy. Goods trade deficit widened to GBP -12.5B, versus expectation of GBP -10.1B.

                Hong Kong HSI leads Asian stocks lower after police shot live ammo at a protester

                  Asian stocks trade broadly lower today as led by steep fall in the Hong Kong HSI. The index gapped lower as the five-month long protests extended from the weekend into Monday morning, in a number of districts including the CBD. The anti-police sentiments intensified last Friday after the death of a 22-year old university student, which is seen as the first proven fatality directly linked to police action. The situation worsened further today, before office hours, after an unarmed young man was shot by police with live ammo. The 21-year old remains in critical condition.

                  The gap down today and subsequent steep fall suggests that HSI’s corrective rise from 24899.93 has completed with three waves up to 27894.45. Immediate focus is now on 55 day EMA (now at 26806.62). Sustained break should send the index for retesting 24899.93 low.

                  The bearish development is supported by rejection from 55 week EMA too. Break of 24899.93 low will extend the down trend form 33530.66 through 61.8% retracement of 18278.80 to 33530.66 at 24105.01.

                  BoJ opinions: Should seriously prepare for the next downturn

                    Summary of opinions of BoJ’s October 30-31 meeting noted that “inflation momentum has not been lost” and thus, the central should “maintain the current easing policy”. However, it was appropriate to “clarify” that the policy stance is “further tilted toward monetary accommodation”, by indicating the “downward bias” in policy rates.

                    Also, in the current situation where risks are skewed to the downside, the Bank should continue to examine whether additional monetary easing will be necessary”. As inflation expectations are “not anchored” to 2% target and observed inflation rate is “far from the target”, BoJ should “seriously prepare for the next economic downturn as one of the risk scenarios.

                    Full summary of opinions here.

                    Canada employment and housing data missed expectations

                      Economic data from Canada are generally disappointing today. Most importantly, employment contracted -1.8k in October, versus expectation of 14.7k growth. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%, matched expectations. Also released, building permits dropped -6.5% mom in September versus expectation of -1.9% mom. Housing starts dropped to 202k in October, below expectation of 220k.

                      USD/CAD finally resumes the rebound from 1.3042 by breaking 1.3208 temporary top. Further rise should now be seen to1.3347/3382 resistance zone next.

                      Fed Bostic fairly comfortable standing pat with policy

                        Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said consumers are “staying pretty rock solid” and labour market maybe a “bit beyond full employment. And currently monetary is already “accommodative”. He could have dissented the latest rate cut if had a vote on monetary policy.

                        Bostic added that “I do think that the economy today is on solid footing and is likely to remain so. I am fairly comfortable standing pat with policy and strongly favor weighing the incoming data, both macro and micro, over the coming months before deciding on any further adjustments.”

                        Negative impacts from the prolonged trade war with China remained modest. “Many businesses that we’ve talked to basically said we’re not going to pass that on, so we have not seen consumers face the tariffs,” he said. “When we do, that will be a new phase of the tariff war.”

                        RBA SoMP: Economic projections largely unchanged

                          In the Monetary Policy Statement, RBA said the economy is “gradually coming out of a soft patch” with GDP growth recovering. Outlook is largely unchanged from three months again, supported by low interest rates, tax cuts, ongoing infrastructure spending and upswing in house prices. Labor markets “has been resilient”, but unemployment will still be “somewhat short of” estimated full employment rate of around 4.5%. Inflation remains “low and steady”, and it’s expected to pick up “only gradually”.

                          RBA also noted that the board was “mindful that rates were already very low and that each further cut brings closer the point at which other policy options might come into play.” And, further easing could “unintentionally convey an overly negative view of the economic outlook”. After three rate cuts this year, RBA stood pat in November, and this “allows time to assess the effects of the recent easing of monetary policy as well as global developments.” But the central also pledged it’s “prepared to ease monetary further if needed”.

                          The new economic projections are largely unchanged. GDP growth is forecast to average 1.75% in 2019 (revised down from 2.00%), 2.75% in 2020 (unchanged), 3.00% in 2021 (unchanged). Unemployment rate is forecast to be at 5.25% by end of 2019 (unchanged), 5.25% by end of 2020 (unchanged), 5.00% by end of 2021 (unchanged). CPI if forecast to be at 1.75% by end of 2019 (unchanged), 1.75% by end of 2020 (unchanged), 2.00% by end of 2021 (unchanged).

                          Full monetary policy statement here.

                          China trade surplus widened to USD 42.8B, much less than expected exports contraction

                            China’s trade surplus came in larger than expected at USD 42.8B in October. Both exports dropped much less than expected over the year. But contraction in imports were slightly larger. Looking at some details, contraction in imports to the US was more than double of exports, year-to-October. Imports from EU merely grew 0.1% ytd yoy.

                            In USD terms, in October:

                            • Total trade dropped -3.4% yoy to USD 383.0B.
                            • Exports dropped -0.9% yoy to USD 212.9B, versus expectation of -5.2% yoy.
                            • Imports dropped -6.4% yoy to USD 170.1B, versus expectation of -6.1% yoy.
                            • Trade surplus widened to USD 42.8B, versus expectation of USD 40.6B.

                            Year-to-October:

                            • Total trade dropped -2.5% yoy to USD 3736B.
                            • Exports dropped -0.2% yoy to USD 2038B.
                            • Imports dropped -5.1% yoy to USD 1698B.
                            • Trade surplus came in at USD 340B.

                            With EU, year-to-October:

                            • Total trade rose 3.1% yoy to USD 579.6B.
                            • Exports rose 5.1% yoy to USD 352.8B.
                            • Imports rose 0.1% yoy to USD 226.8B.
                            • Trade surplus came in at USD 126.1B

                            With US, year-to-October:

                            • Total trade dropped -14.9% yoy to USD 447.8B.
                            • Exports dropped -11.3% yoy to USD 347.8B.
                            • Imports dropped -25.4% yoy to USD 100.0B.
                            • Trade surplus came in at USD 247.8B.

                            US Kudlow said there will be tariffs concessions with China, but Navarro said no agreement yet

                              The messages regarding rollback of imposed tariffs as part of the phase one US-China trade agreement were rather confusing and conflicting. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg, “if there’s a phase one trade deal, there are going to be tariff agreements and concessions.”

                              However, another White House adviser Peter Navarro told Fox Business Network: “There is no agreement at this time to remove any of the existing tariffs as a condition of the phase one deal.” And China was just “negotiating in public”, trying to push this in a direction with their “propaganda press.” White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham just said “I cannot get ahead of the talks with China, but we are very, very optimistic that we will reach a deal soon”.

                              Yesterday, China Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said “both sides have agreed to cancel additional tariffs in different phases, as both sides make progress in their negotiations.”

                              US initial claims dropped to 211k, below expectation of 215k

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -8k to 211k in the week ending November 2, below expectation of 215k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 0.25k to 215.25k.

                                Continuing claims dropped -3k in the week ending October 26 to 1.689m. Four-week moving average of continuing claims was unchanged at 1.687m.

                                Full release here.

                                BoE Carney’s press conference live stream

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                                  BoE kept bank rate at 0.75%, Haskel and Saunders voted for rate cut

                                    BoE left Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected while asset purchase target is held at GBP 435B. However, the vote on policy rate was no unanimous, by 7-2. Two members (Jonathan Haskel and Michael Saunders) voted against the proposition, preferring to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%.

                                    However, the accompanying statement still noted that provided that risks on Brexit and global growth do not materialize, and the economy recovers broadly in line with latest projections, “some modest tightening of policy, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, may be needed to maintain inflation sustainably at the target.”

                                    Full statement here.

                                    In the new economic projections published in the Monetary Policy Report, BoE projects GDP growth to pick up from 1.0% in 2019 Q4, to 1.5% in 2020 Q4, 1.8% in 2021 Q4 and 2.1% in 2022 Q4. Inflation is forecast to remain subdued at 1.4% in 2019 Q4 , and 1.5% in 2020 Q4. Though, CPI could finally hit target at 2.0% in 2021 Q4 and then 2.2% in 2022 Q4.

                                    The path of Bank Rate implied for forward market interest rate would drop from 0.7% to 0.5% in 2020 Q4, and stay there throughout the projection horizon.

                                    Full Monetary Policy Report here.

                                    EU downgrades Eurozone growth forecast, protracted period of subdued growth and muted inflation

                                      In the latest economic projections released today, European Commission downgraded growth forecasts as “the external environment has become much less supportive and uncertainty is running high”. And, this is “particularly affecting the manufacturing sector, which is also experiencing structural shift”. European economy looks to be “heading towards a protracted period of more subdued growth and muted inflation.”

                                      Eurozone GDP is forecast to grow by 1.1% in 2019 (down from summer forecast of 1.2%), 1.2% in 2020 (down from 1.4%) and 1.2% in 2021. For EU as a whole, GDP is expected to grow 1.4% in 2019, 2020 (down from 1.6%) and 2021. Eurozone HICP is forecast at 1.2% in 2019, rising to just 1.3% in 2021.

                                      Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice-President said: “We could be facing troubled waters ahead: a period of high uncertainty related to trade conflicts, rising geopolitical tensions, persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector and Brexit.” Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, said: “The challenging road ahead leaves no room for complacency. All policy levers will need to be used to strengthen Europe’s resilience and support growth.”  

                                      Full release here.

                                      ECB bulletin: Extra Eurozone exports stagnated, intra Eurozone trade weakened further

                                        ECB Monthly Bulletin noted that global survey indications suggest “subdued” economic activity, “but stabilizing”. Risks to global outlook “remain to the downside” amid a “further escalation of trade disputes, high uncertainty related to Brexit and a potentially slower recovery in a number of emerging market economies.” Also, global trade momentum is “expected to remain muted”, as higher tariffs are set to come fully into effect at the end of the year.

                                        Domestically, recent data continue to point to “positive but moderate employment growth” in Eurozone. Rising employment should support household income and consumer spending. Business investment is expected to “remain subdued” in the context of “elevated uncertainty and low profit margins”. Extra Eurozone exports “stagnated” while intraday Eurozone trade “weakened further”. Incoming data point to “moderate but positive” growth in H2. Risks remain on the downside.

                                        Full report here.

                                        China said to have agreed plan to reverse tariffs with US

                                          Market sentiments are once again lifted by upbeat news regarding US-China trade negotiations, as China said they’ve agreed with the US on a plan to reverse the tariffs imposed.

                                          China Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said, at a regular press briefing, “in the past two weeks, top negotiators had serious, constructive discussions and agreed to remove the additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement,” spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday..

                                          “If China, U.S. reach a phase-one deal, both sides should roll back existing additional tariffs in the same proportion simultaneously based on the content of the agreement, which is an important condition for reaching the agreement.”