RBA minutes from the November 3–4 meeting underscored a Board that sees the economy as “broadly in balance” and saw no justification to adjust the cash rate at this stage. While the central projection remains aligned with the RBA’s employment and inflation objectives, policymakers stressed that the next move in rates is not predetermined. Members agreed it was “not yet possible to be confident” about whether holding steady or easing further would become the more likely scenario.
The minutes outlined several conditions that could support keeping policy unchanged. One is a stronger-than-expected recovery in “demand” that lifts employment. Another is if incoming data suggest the economy’s “supply capacity” is weaker than previously assessed — potentially due to persistently high inflation or softer-than-expected productivity growth. A third is a reassessment of whether monetary policy is still “slightly restrictive”. Any of these outcomes, the RBA said, would “limit the scope for further easing”.
But the Board also detailed circumstances that could justify another rate cut. A material weakening in the labor market remains the clearest trigger. A second downside risk is if GDP growth disappoints — for example, if households turn “more cautious about spending” than currently assumed. In these cases, excess capacity would likely reappear, cooling inflation and warranting additional support.
Overall, the minutes confirm a central bank in wait-and-see mode. The RBA is not ruling out further easing, but neither is it leaning strongly toward it. The next several months of data — particularly on productivity, inflation persistence, and household spending — will be crucial in determining whether the Board holds steady or reopens the easing path in 2026.
Bitcoin eyes temporary support at 92k; broader downside risks stretch to 84k or even 70k
Bitcoin’s downturn has accelerated last week, dragging the cryptocurrency back toward levels last seen at the end of 2024. The retreat is striking: despite surging to a fresh record above 126k earlier this year, the entire advance has now been unwound.
For now, the pace of selloff has slowed, and some signs of stabilization are emerging. Bitcoin is approaching potential technical support near 92k, a level that aligns with measured projection of the current decline. Still, the broader technical picture suggests that this latest leg lower may be part of a correction within a much larger, multi-year uptrend rather than a simple dip to be bought.
History also matters, and a deeper drop could change behavior quickly. Bitcoin has repeatedly seen corrections of more than 50% during major down cycles, and any renewed acceleration lower may reawaken those memories among investors. Panic selling is an unmistakable risk if the decline extends sharply from here, especially given how quickly sentiment has turned since the October peak.
This downturn is not happening in isolation. The slide from the record high has been driven by a confluence of factors: widespread profit-taking by long-term holders, steady institutional outflows, and the forced liquidation of leveraged longs. Adding to the pressure, broader market sentiment has softened as uncertainty over a December Fed rate cut lingers. That policy hesitation has weighed on risk assets broadly, cryptocurrencies included.
Technically, short-term indicators reflect loss of downside momentum. 4H MACD is showing early signs of stabilization, and Bitcoin may find a floor near 100% projection of 126,289 to 101,896 from 116,405 at 92,012. Break of 97,351 minor resistance would signal near-term bottoming and allow for consolidation. However, any rebound is likely to be capped below 10,7493 resistance, keeping the bias tilted toward another decline.
The longer-term chart carries deeper implications. The entire uptrend from 15,452 (2022 low) may have completed as a five-wave rise to 126,289. Bearish divergence in W MACD supports this interpretation, and last week’s break below 55 W EMA (now at 98,483) reinforces the prospect of a broader correction.
From a structural perspective, 38.2% retracement of 15,452 to 126,289 at 83,949 is the minimum medium term downside target for the correction. However, given the combination of momentum loss and macro headwinds, a deeper decline toward 50% level at 70,870 — where a notable support cluster sits — cannot be ruled out.