Germany PMI manufacturing dropped to 43.4, continues to weigh heavily on private sector output

    Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped to 43.4 in December, down from 44.1, missed expectation of 44.5. PMI Services rose to 52.0, up from 51.7, matched expectations. PMI Composite was unchanged at 49.4.

    Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

    “With the headline composite PMI holding steady at 49.4 in December, the flash data point to a weak end to a difficult year for the German economy.

    “Manufacturing continues to weigh heavily on private sector output, with faster decreases in factory production and employment in December causing the manufacturing PMI to tick down for the first time in three months. Easing rates of decline in new orders and exports continue to provide glimmers of hope, however.

    “The service sector remains resilient, with business activity rising at a stronger pace and business confidence perking up as well, though weak labour market trends are likely to be a restricting factor for the sector as we head into the new year.”

    Full release here.

    France PMI manufacturing dropped but services improved

      France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 50.3 in December, down from 51.7, and missed expectation of 51.4. PMI Services rose to 52.4, up from 52.2, and beat expectation of 51.8. PMI Composite dropped slightly to 52.0, down from 52.1.

      Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

      “The latest PMI data pointed to further activity growth in the French private sector, but revealed disappointing results for the manufacturing sector.”

      “Following some green shoots in October and November, manufacturing production stagnated and new orders returned to contraction territory. Moreover, employment and outstanding business stuttered to somewhat quell hopes of sustained industrial recovery.”

      “On the other hand, service sector growth remained broadly in line with trend and continued to provide support to the economy. Taking into account other data, our Nowcast model points to a healthy growth rate of around 0.4% in the fourth quarter.”

      Full release here.

      China industrial production rose 6.2%, fastest in five months

        China’s industrial production rose 6.2% yoy in November, accelerated from 4.7% yoy and beat expectation of 5.0% yoy. That’s also the fastest pace in five months. Retail sales rose 8.0% yoy, up from 7.2% yoy and beat expectation of 7.6% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 5.2% YTD yoy, matched expectations. House price rose 0.3% mom, slowest since February 2018.

        National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Fu Linghui said the data showed positive changes in the month and reiterated that China can achieve its full-year economic growth target. Fu also said China and US should continue bilateral trade talks and work towards removing all existing tariffs.

        Japan PMI composite unchanged at 49.8, services unable to offset industrial weakness

          Japan PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.8 in December, down from 48.9. The index stayed below 50 threshold for the eighth straight month. PMI Services rose to 50.6, up from 50.3. PMI Composite was unchanged at 49.8.

          Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Latest survey data showed that the Japanese economy remained stagnant in December… The most disconcerting takeaway from the fourth quarter survey data has been the marked loss of momentum in the services sector… It’s now clear that service sector is unable to offset the industrial weakness, which does not bode well for growth prospects in 2020”.

          Full release here.

          Australia government downgrades growth, consumption and wages forecasts

            In the 2019-20 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), the Australian government said the economy “continues to show resilience in the face of weak momentum in the global economy as well as domestic challenges such as the devastating effects of drought and bushfires.” However, there were some notable downward revisions in economic projections. In particular, through the two fiscal years from 2019 to 2021, household consumptions, and wages growth were deeply downgraded. These revisions affirm the case for more RBA easing.

            For 2019-20 fiscal year, GDP is forecast to grow 2.25%, revised down from 2.75%. Household consumption growth was revised to 1.75%, down from 2.75%. Exports growth was revised to 2.25$, down from 4.00%. CPI was revised to 2.00%, down from 2.25%. Wage price index was revised down to 2.25%, from 2.75%. Unemployment rate was revised up to 5.25%, from 5.00%.

            For 2020-21 fiscal year. GDP growth was kept unchanged at 2.75%. However, household consumption was revised down to 2.50%, from 3.00%. Exports, was revised up to 2.50%, from 1.50%. CPI was revised down to 2.25%, from 2.50%. Wage price index was also revised down to 2.50%, from 3.25%. Unemployment rate was revised up to 5.25%, from 5.00%.

            Full MYEFO here.

            Australia CBA PMI composite dropped to 49.4, RBA’s gentle turning point remains elusive

              Australia CBA Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4 in December, down from 49.9. That also the worst contraction in 44 months. Services PMI dropped to 49.5, down from 49.7. PMI Composite dropped to 49.4, down from 49.7.

              Commenting on the Commonwealth Bank Flash PMI data, CBA Chief Economist, Michael Blythe said:

              “The PMI readings indicate that the Australian economy ended 2019 on a softish note. The RBA’s “gentle turning point” for the economy remains elusive. And the weakness in private spending evident in the Q3 GDP data looks to have continued in Q4, with a flow on to labour demand as well. There were also some early indications that the disruptions associated with the terrible bushfires around Sydney and elsewhere are having some impact”.

              “New orders continue to rise, however, indicating a degree of resilience in the domestic economy. The rise in new export business also indicates a degree of resilience to the sluggish global backdrop”.

              Full release here.

              USTR Lighthizer: China trade deal is the first step to integrate two very different systems

                US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer confirmed again on Sunday that the phase one trade deal with China is “totally done, absolutely”. He also told CBS that it’s “not just about agriculture and other purchases”. He emphasized, “the way to think about this deal, is this is a first step in trying to integrate two very different systems to the benefit of both of us.”

                Though, he also admitted that “ultimately, whether this whole agreement works is going to be determined by who’s making the decisions in China, not in the United States”. “If the hardliners are making the decisions, we’re going to get one outcome. If the reformers are making the decisions, which is what we hope, then we’re going to get another outcome”, he added.

                USTR confirms trade deal with China, maintain 25% tariffs on $250B and 7.5% on $120B of Chinese goods

                  US Trade Representative confirmed in a formal statement that US and China have reached an “historic and enforceable” agreement on a Phase one trade deal. The deal requires “structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange.” Also, China commits to make “substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” A strong dispute resolution system is established with the deal that “ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement.”

                  Meanwhile, USTR said “The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.”

                  US President Donald Trump also tweeted: “We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder. The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!”

                  In a delayed press conference, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said the text of trade deal phase one was agreed with the US. And there will be removal of tariffs on Chinese goods in stages. Also, China will increase imports from US and other countries.

                  Markets rocked as Trump said WSJ report on China trade deal was fake news

                    Markets are rocked by US President Donald Trump’s tweet again. He complained that WSJ’s story regarding US-China trade deal was “completely wrong, especially their statement on Tariffs.” He added, “Fake News. They should find a better leaker!”

                    Trump said yesterday that he’s getting “VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China.” WSJ  indicated US would cut the currently imposed tariffs by 50% as part of the deal. New tariffs would be put on hold. China generally believed to offer to step up US farm products purchases in 2020, possibly doubling from the value in 2017 to USD 50B.

                    Markets are expecting some form of formal announcement to be made today by US administration. It remains to be seen if that would happen.

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                    US retail sales rose 0.2%, ex-auto sales rose 0.1%

                      US retail sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 528.0B in November, below expectation of 0.4% mom Ex-auto sales rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom. Import price index rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations.

                      Full retail sales release here.

                      EU von der Leyen aims at zero tariff, zero quotas, zero dumping with UK

                        European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen talked about future relationship with UK after Brexit. She said “We aim at zero tariff, zero quotas and zero dumping, and this is very important for us.”

                        She also warned that “we are addressing the challenge that the time is very short, we have 11 months to negotiate a broad field”. “And it’s not only about trade, but we are also speaking about education, transport, fisheries, many, many other fields are in the portfolio to be negotiated.”

                        ECB de Guindos said UK election results eliminate uncertainty in the short term

                          ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos hailed that “the results of the elections in Great Britain are positive because they eliminate uncertainty in the short term”. And, “we know perfectly well that on the 31st January the United Kingdom will leave the union – this is good in terms of uncertainty, but also hails a new period, one which will not be easy.” “It will not be easy because commerce rules will have to be renegotiated.”

                          Separately, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said “The economic situation in the euro zone is beginning to stabilise … and as the situation stabilizes so does monetary policy”. He added, “we are applying the measures decided in September and aren’t adding any more… For how long depends on the economic situation and its improvement.” Another Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said “domestic factors represent the main drive of economic activity while the growth of foreign demand will be weak”.

                          Sterling surges as Conservative on track to massive election victory

                            Sterling strengthens broadly as exit poll suggested that Conservative Party is on course for a thumping 86-seat majority after the landslide win in the elections. Boris Johnson is expected to push his Brexit deal through the parliament, with a second reading before Christmas. UK would then be on track to finally leave the EU in an orderly manner on January 31.

                            Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said he will stand down after the worst defeat since 1935. The party would lost 61 seats since the 2017 elections, finishing on just 201 MPs.

                            Formal announcement of US-China trade deal phase one expected on Friday

                              It’s reported that US President Donald Trump has already signed off the phase one trade agreement with China. A formal announcement is expected on Friday. The terms are believed to be generally agreed even though it could take some more time to finalize the legal texts.

                              Under the agreement, China would buy as much as USD 50B in US farm products in 2020, doubling the purchases in 2017, before the start of trade war. Both sides would also cut the currently imposed tariffs by 50%. New tariffs would be put on hold.

                              The news is welcomed by businesses. US-China Business Council President Craig Allen said “If signed, this is an encouraging first phase that puts a floor under further deterioration of the bilateral relationship. But this is just the beginning. The issues facing the US and China are complex and multi-faceted. They are unlikely to all be resolved quickly.”

                              However, the reactions from politicians are mixed, even within Trump’s Republican party. Republican Senator Marco Rubio warned, “White House should consider the risk that a near-term deal with China would give away the tariff leverage needed for a broader agreement on the issues that matter the most such as sub sidies to domes tic firms, forced tech transfers & blocking U.S. firms access to key sectors”.

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                              DOW hits record, Dollar jumps as US-China very close to a BIG trade deal

                                Sentiments are given a strong boost as it now appears that US and China are ready for a trade agreement. US President Donald Trump tweeted: “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!”

                                WSJ also reported: “U.S. negotiators have offered to slash existing tariffs by as much as half on roughly $360 billion of Chinese-made goods as well as to cancel a new round of levies set to take effect on Sunday, according to people briefed on the matter”.

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                                DOW hit news record higher at 18203.30 so far and is currently up 0.96%.

                                In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc are broadly under pressure while Dollar and Aussie are the strongest.

                                ECB Lagarde noted signs on stabilization and mild increase in underlying inflation

                                  ECB President Christine Lagarde said in the post-meeting press conference that incoming data pointed to “muted inflation pressures and weak euro area growth dynamics”. However, there were “some initial signs of stabilisation” in slowdown and a “mild increase” in underlying inflation. Job and wages growth continue to “underpin the resilience” of Eurozone economy too.

                                  There were some slight adjustments in the new Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. GDP growth are forecast to be at 1.2% in 2019 (revised up from Sep’s 1.1%), 1.1% in 2020 (revised down from 1.2%) and 1.4% in both 2021 (unchanged) and 2022. HICP inflation is projected to be at 1.2% in 2019 (unchanged), 1.1% in 2020 (revised up from 1.0%), 1.4% in 2021 (revised down from 1.5%) and 1.6% in 2022.

                                  Full introductory statement here.

                                  US initial jobless claims surged to 253, highest since Sep 2017

                                    US initial jobless claims surged 49k to 253k in the week ending December 7, well above expectation of 211k. That’s also the highest level since September 30, 2017. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 6.25k to 224k.

                                    Continuing claims dropped -31k to 1.667m in the week ending November 30. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -6.25k to 1.676m.

                                    PPI came in at 0.0% mom, 1.1% yoy in November, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.2% yoy. Core PPI was at -0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy.

                                    ECB keeps main refinancing rate at 0.00%, maintains forward guidance

                                      ECB keeps main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00% as widely expected. Marginal lending facility rate and deposit rate are held at 0.25% and -0.50% respectively too.

                                      Forward guidance is maintained that “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.”

                                      Ifo: No ground to fear an economy-wide recession in Germany

                                        Ifo institute said Germany’s economy stabilized in Q3 but remains divided, with manufacturing industry “caught in recession”. Though, spread of industrial weakness has been “limited to industry-oriented service providers”. There has been “no indirect transmission to consumer- and construction-related sectors. At present, there is “no grounds” to fear an “economy-wide recession”. Ifo forecasts GDP growth to accelerate form 0.5% in 2019 to 1.1% in 2020, and then 1.5% in 2021.

                                        For Eurozone, economic momentum is “not expected to get any worse at this juncture”, even though it will “take several quarters before” a “tangible recovery”. GDP is expected to growth 1.2% in 2019, 1.2% in 2020, and then 1.3% in 2021.

                                        Full report here.

                                        Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5%, led by capital goods

                                          Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.5% mom in October, below expectation of -0.3% mom. Production of capital goods fell by -2.0% mom and energy by -0.7% mom, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.4% mom, intermediate goods by 0.6% mom, and durable consumer goods by 1.9% mom.

                                          EU 28 industrial production dropped -0.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were registered in Denmark and Greece (both -2.6% mom), and in Latvia and Lithuania (both -2.3% mom). The highest increases were observed in Portugal (+3.1% mom), Slovenia (+2.0% mom) and Poland (+1.1% mom).

                                          Full release here.