US Treasury not to name China a currency manipulator, just keep it in monitoring list

    There are media reports came out yesterday saying that US Treasury is not going to name China a currency manipulator in the upcoming report to be released later in the month. Though China will remain on a monitoring list due to the huge trade surplus with the US.

    That could put Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin under even bigger pressure from Trump and the trade hawks in his administration. Mnuchin is clearly the one who preferred to and tried to line up restart of negotiation with China. But he has been receiving cold shoulders from his colleagues.

    And Trump seemed to have gotten impatient with Mnuchin. If should be reminded that Trump didn’t just complained Fed for rate hikes. In his words, he said earlier “The problem [causing the market drop] in my opinion is Treasury and the Fed. The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.”

    In a Bloomberg interview yesterday, Mnuchin declined to comment and only said “We are concerned about the depreciation” of the yuan, he said, “and want to make sure that it’s not being used as a competitive devaluation.”

    USD/CNH (offshore Yuan) was rejected from 6.9586 high yesterday, mainly thanks to Dollar’s broad based selloff. It’s technically still bounded inside a near term rising channel. Thus, more upside (that is more downside in Yuan) could be seen. But the corrective structure of the choppy rise from 6.7776 warrants that 6.9586 won’t be broken even in case of another rise.

    Time for a rebound? A look at DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ after another day of selloff

      The recovery attempt in the US stock markets failed overnight. DOW lost another -545.91 pts or -2.13% to close at 25052.83. S&P 500 dropped -57.31 pts or -2.06% to 2728.37. NASDAQ fell -92.99 pts or -1.25% to 7329.06.

      DOW move further away from 55 day EMA affirms the case that it’s in medium term correction. That is, fall from 26951.81 is corrective the up trend from 15450.56, in a less bearish case. Eventually, it might decline to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26951.81 at 22558.33 before forming a real bottoming. Nonetheless, the next line of defense come is between 23997.21 structural support and 55 week EMA (now at 24512.04). Some interim support could be seen there. But looks like there’s some more downside for the near term.

      However, S&P 500 is already in proximity to equivalent support zone. That is, 2691.99 structure support and 55 week EMA (now at 2713.94).

      NASDAQ is well above equivalent structure support at 6926.97. But it’s already pressing 55 week EMA (now at 7306.12).

      So, the conditions are starting to be in place for an interim rebound, before weekly close or next week. (Well admittedly, it actually sounds rather trivial after the steep losses this week, stocks are ready for short covering recovery.)

       

      Mid-US update: Stocks stablized as treasury yields dive, EUR/CHF and Gold upside breakouts

        There is tentative sign of stabilization in US stock markets today. DOW initially extended the selloff to as low as 25226.16. The tamer than expected inflation reading just provided brief support to investor sentiments. However, as bond yields’ decline gathers momentum, stocks are back to life. At the time of writing, DOW is down just -0.01%, S&P 500 down 0.13% and NASDAQ is indeed up 0.56%. 10-year yield is down -0.060 at 3.165. 30 year yield is down -0.056 at 3.342. European markets didn’t enjoy the recovery, closing a little too early. FTSE closed down -1.94%, DAX down -1.48%, CAC down -1.92%.

        In the currency markets, Swiss Franc is undoubtedly the weakest one for now, followed by Yen and then Dollar. New Zealand, Australia and Canadian Dollar are the strongest ones.

        One development to note is that EUR/CHF has firmly taken out 1.1452 resistance decisively. The development should confirm bullish reversal after drawing support from 1.1154/98 key support zone. Further rise is now in favor back to 1.1713 resistance next.

        Another development is gold’s break of 1214 resistance Rebound from 1160.36 is extending. But we’d expect 1235.24/1236.99 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 1365.24 to 1160.36 at 1238.62, 100% projection of 1160.36 to 1214.30 from 1183.05 at 1236.99) to limit upside.

        Gold finally breaks 1214, 1235/6 is the key resistance

          Gold finally breaks 1214.30 resistance to resume the rebound from 1160.36, with strong upside momentum. Further rally would now be seen. But at this point, we’re seeing such rally as a correction to the fall from 1365.24 to 1160.36. The key lies in 1235.24/1236.99 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 1365.24 to 1160.36 at 1238.62, 100% projection of 1160.36 to 1214.30 from 1183.05 at 1236.99). For now we’d expect this resistance to hold to bring down trend resumption.

          However, decisive break there will argue that the trend could have reversed and further rally might be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 1286.97 and above.

          White House Kudlow: US is the hottest economy in the world right now

            In a CNBC interview, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow referred to Trump’s attack on Fed and said “The president has his own views. He’s stated them many times. There’s nothing new here as far as I can tell.” But Kudlow also added “We all know the Fed is independent. The president is not dictating policy to the Fed. He didn’t say anything remotely like that.”

            Kudlow described the stock market fall yesterday is a “normal correction in a bull market”. And he emphasized “the economic numbers are superb across the board.” Also, he said “We are the hottest economy in the world right now. We’re crushing it … Europe is slowing down. Asia is slowing down. We are moving rapidly.”

            Dollar lower as US core CPI failed to accelerate, initial jobless claims rose

              Dollar trades generally lower in early US session after slightly lower than expected inflation reading. Headline CPI slowed from 2.7% yoy to 2.3% yoy, missed expectation of 2.4% yoy. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.2% yoy, missed expectation of 2.3% yoy.

              Initial jobless claims rose 7k to 214k in the week ended October 6, missed expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.5k to 209.5k. Continuing claims rose 4k to 1.66m in the week ended September 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -10k to 1.656m, lowest since August 18, 1973.

              Also released Canada new housing price index rose 0.0% mom in August, missed expectation of 0.2% mom.

              ECB: Uncertainty around the inflation outlook was receding

                The accounts of September ECB monetary policy meeting provide no surprise nor anything of particular importance. One thing to note is that the Governing Council was more comfortable with the inflation outlook. It’s noted that there was “broad agreement” on the “progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation”. And, “while measures of underlying inflation remained generally muted, they had been increasing from earlier lows.”

                ECB added that “Comfort was drawn from the strengthening and broadening of domestic cost pressures, which were supported by the ongoing economic expansion, high levels of capacity utilisation and increasing labour market tightness, which was leading to rising wages.” Most importantly, “uncertainty around the inflation outlook was receding.”

                Full accounts here.

                Pre-US update: China stock breaks critical support, AUD & NZD shrug and turn stronger

                  Global stock market rout continues in European session. At the time of writing, DAX is down -1.21%, CAC down -1.41%, FTSE down -1.74%. German 10 year bund yield is dropping -0.048 at 0.508. We’ll see if it can defend 0.5 handle. Italian yield rises 0.089 to 3.593. That is, German-Italian spread is back above 300 again.

                  In the currency markets, despite risk aversion, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest one today. One explanation is that due to global stock market turmoil, there is less risk of monetary policy divergence between AU/NZ and the rest of developed world. Of course this one is a bit far fetched. On other hand, Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Yen and Sterling.

                  But again, the weekly picture is usually more accurate. Yen is the strongest one followed by New Zealand Dollar and then Sterling. Canadian Dollar is the worst performing, followed by Dollar and then Euro.

                  In Asia, Nikkei lost -3.89% to 22590.86. Singapore Strait Times lost -2.69% to 3047.39. Hong Kong HSI fell -3.54% to 25266.37.

                  China Shanghai SSE dropped -5.22%, to close at 2583.46. Remember that PBoC announced some surprised measures during the last Sunday. Clearly, they’re no able to stop China from following global trend. The SSE has now closed below key support level of 2638.3 (2016 low). The whole down trend from 5178.28 is resuming. Barring any government intervention, the index will likely head towards 61.8% projection of 5178.19 to 2638.30 from 3587.03 at 2017.37 in medium term. It’s just the beginning of a serious down turn in China.

                  ECB Hansson: Rather risky to be more precise in forward guidance now

                    ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said urged not to be more specific on forward guidance yet. He said “To be any more precise than that, to lock in a date, to tie our hands would be rather risky”. Instead, “when we get closer, we can have another discussion if we need to adjust the language again, but this is not a debate we are going to have just yet.”

                    Separately, another Governing Council member Olli Rehn “core inflation is still rather weak in the euro zone at around 1 percent, as it has been for the last couple of years, so an accommodative monetary policy is still needed in Europe.”

                    Fed Bullard: No need to do more on monetary policy normalization

                      St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said “with respect to the (monetary policy) normalization, we have already reached a point when policy rates are in a good position.” And he suggested that Fed policymakers “don’t need to do much more to normalize policy.”

                      Separately, he also welcomed the USMCA North America trade agreement. He said “this is very good news, because it shows that despite the ups and down of negotiations, you can reach a conclusion …on trade relations.” And he hope the US “can get deals like this elsewhere and we might get the uncertainty down on this issue.”

                      IMF Lagarde urged to de-escalate trade wars for the innocent bystanders

                        In a conference in Indonesia, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged countries to “de-escalate” trade wars was they could hurt “innocent bystanders”. She said, “We certainly hope we don’t move in either direction of a trade war or a currency war. It will be detrimental on both accounts for all participants… and there would also be lots of innocent bystanders.”

                        Regarding recent depreciation of the Chinese Yuan, Lagarde said it’s mainly driven by the strengthen of Dollar. And she noted that Yuan has not depreciated as much against a basket of currencies. She acknowledged that “we’re seeing more and more countries, China included, let their currencies fluctuate.” At the same time she also supported “the move of China toward (currency) flexibility” and urged China to go down that path.”

                        An update on AUD/USD short

                          Here’s an update on AUD/USD short (sold at 0.7100), last updated here.

                          The trade is so far doing ok as risk aversion realized. But we’ve overestimated the strength in Dollar. Still, the price actions from 0.7040 to 0.7130 are corrective looking, which reinforces our bearish view. For now, we’ll keep the stop at 0.7185, slightly above 50% retracement of 0.7314 to 0.7040 at 0.7178. That’s because, theoretically speaking, consolidation pattern from 0.7040 could extend with another leg through 0.7130, even though it’s unlikely. Upon decisive break of 0.7040, we’ll lower the stop after AUD/USD settles below this level.

                          Our view is unchanged that medium term fall from 0.8135 could be resuming long term down trend. Hence, we have not decided whether to exit at around 0.6826 low yet. We’ll monitor downside momentum in both 4H and daily chart to decide at a later stage.

                          Trump scapegoats Fed as going crazy, wild and loco

                            It really bothers us to report nonsense. But when there are headlines flying around that could have an impact on the markets, it’s hard not to talk about it.

                            Trump launched another scapegoating attack on Fed and said, referring to the over 800 pts fall in DOW, “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy.” He added “actually, it’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing.”

                            Later he doubled down and said in a telephone interview that “the problem I have is with the Fed. The Fed is going wild. I mean, I don’t know what their problem is that they are raising interest rates and it’s ridiculous.” “The problem [causing the market drop] in my opinion is Treasury and the Fed. The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.”

                            It’s again typical Trump in blaming the others. When the stock market hit record highs, did we hear the praise that Fed has done a great job? When unemployment is at record lows, with inflation at target, is Fed given the credits for meeting it’s dual mandates? Trump claimed all the credits all the way. When things turn, it’s others’ faults.

                            And, with federal funds rates at 2.00-2.25% and Fed still having a massive balance sheet, describing monetary policy as being “so tight” is a lie. When you disagree with what the Fed is doing, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s crazy. Fed’s decisions are collective made by a committee of rational professionals and intellects. It looks more like Trump himself is the crazy one.

                            And after all, he nominated Fed chair Powell and hired Treasurer Mnuchin. Add to the long list of people you hired and fired. If you keep on hiring the wrong people, then you are the problem, POTUS. You better quit.

                            Anyway, enough rants. Let’s move on .

                            Asia in crisis mode after US stock crash, a look at HSI

                              Following the stock market crash in the US, Asia is also in crisis mode. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -3.89%, Singapore Strait Times is down -2.7%, and China Shanghai SSE is down -4.52%. SSE has now broken 2016 low at 2638, which is a key support level, not for trade war, but for the crash in the US.

                              Hong Kong HSI gapped down at open and is now down over -1000 pts, or -3.84%.

                              The down trend started earlier this year as dragged down by China’s SSE. Now DOW also joined the party. Based on current momentum, HSI heading to 61.8% retracement of 18278.8 to 33530.6 at 24105.0 for sure. Realistic chance of some support could be found at 76.4% retracement at 21878.23. But let’s see. It could be worse if China SSE accelerates further downward after breaking 2600 handle.

                              DOW already in medium term reversal? 24531 is next test

                                Let’s have a look at DOW after yesterday’s steep, -831 pts or -3.15% fall.

                                The strong break of 55 day EMA, coupled with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, is significantly raising the chance that it’s now in medium term reversal. From price structure point of view, there was also a beautiful wave four triangle from 26616.71 to 23997.21, followed by a short impulse wave five from 23997.21 to 26951.81. Unless DOW could get back above 55 day EMA quickly, otherwise, risk is now heavily on the downside.

                                So how far could DOW fall to? If we take a less bearish view, it’s just correcting the uptrend from 2016 low at 15450.56 to 26951.81. Then, first support is 55 week EMA (now at 24531.54). Defending this support will keep the medium term intact and invalidate the above mentioned medium term reversal case. However, firm break there should at least send DOW back to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26951.81 at 22558.33 before bottoming.

                                Mid-US update: DOW in crash mode, Dollar gets no support from treasury yields

                                  Risk aversion is the main theme in the first half of US session as stocks are in crash mode. DOW is trading down -1.4% or -370 pts. S&P 500 is down -1.30% and NASDAQ is down -1.86%. European indices are even worse, with DAX closed down -2.21%, CAC down -2.11% and FTSE down -1.27%.

                                  Strength in global treasury yields is being blamed as the reason for the stock market selloff. German 10 year bund yield closed up 0.0041 at 0.556, quite “confidently” above 0.5 handle. US yields are also rising so far, with 5 year yield up 0.009 at 3.066, 10 year yield up 0.012 at 3.220, 30-year yield up 0.017 at 3.387. But we have to emphasize that these three US yields are held below last week’s highs.

                                  In the currency markets, commodity currencies are the weakest ones naturally. But it should be noted that Dollar doesn’t get any lift from US yields and is trading as the third weakest for now, next to Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Yen and Swiss are not the strongest neither. It’s Sterling that’s the biggest winner and Euro the second. It will take some more time for us to analysis what’s really happening. But for sure, it’s not as simple as rising yield and falling stocks. We’re not satisfied with this simplistic explanation.

                                  Anyway, USD/JPY finally made up its mind to break through 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 111.96.

                                  EUR/USD will most likely take out 1.1549 resistance to indicate short term bottoming at 1.1431. It’s unsure, for now, whether it will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 through 1.1814. But at least, more upside is in favor in near term.

                                  The bigger question for us is, whether DOW has topped out in medium term at 26951.81, earlier that we expected. It’s a beautiful short wave five impulse from 23997.21 after wave four triangle from 26616.71 to 23997.21. Unfortunately, for now DOW is still holding above 55 day EMA. Thus, we cannot make a call yet. Let’s see how it goes for the rest of the week.

                                  Into US session: Sterling recovers from GDP blip, Euro and Dollar firm too

                                    Entering into US session, Sterling is trading as the strongest one for today so far. Weaker than expected UK GDP triggered very brief retreat in the Pound. And Sterling quickly find its footing on Brexit optimism again. At the time of writing, Euro is the second strongest as Italian yield drops for another day. The selling climax in Italian bonds could have passed the climax for the near, possibly until credit agency rating actions. Dollar trades mildly high as consolidative price actions extend. Yen is the weakest one as sentiments stabilized and turned mixed. Kiwi is the second weakest, followed by Loonie.

                                    In Europe, CAC leads the way down by -0.71%, DAX is down -0.64% and FTSE is down -0.05%. Italian 10 year yield is dropping -0.0361 at 3.475. German 10 year bund yield is up 0.0049 at 0.556. German-Italian spread is no back below 300. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.16%, Hong Kong HSI rose 0.08%, China Shanghai SSE rose 0.18%. But Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.11%. 10 year JGB yield dropped -0.0065 to 0.156, still way above BoJ’s allowed band of -0.1 to 0.1%.

                                    German government to revise down growth forecasts to 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019

                                      Reuters reported, according to a document they obtained, German government slashed growth forecast for both 2018 and 2019 in the update to be released tomorrow. Growth is now projected to be at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019, down from prior projections of 2.3% and 2.1% respectively. For 2020, growth is expected to be unchanged at 1.8%. Weak global trade, lowered state consumption and softer auto sector are the causes for slower than expected growth.

                                      Inflation is projected to be at 1.9% in 2018 and rise further to 2.0% in 2019. The document also noted that “in view of the strong expansion of disposable income and moderate inflation, private consumption is likely to pick up noticeably.” House hold spending is expected to grow 1.6% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019. State consumption is projected to grow 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. State investment is project to rise 5.9% in 2018 and 5.2% in 2019.

                                      According to IMF’s latest forecasts released earlier this week, German growth is projected at 1.9% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, revised down from April forecasts of 2.5% and 2.0% respectively.

                                      ECB Mersch: Global risks are gaining prominence

                                        ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch said in Singapore that the Eurozone economy is experience broad based expansion. And risks to growth remain “broadly balanced”. Overall, Mersch expect the expansion to continue as a “pace slightly above potential in the period ahead.” Inflation is expected to continue its rise thanks to “quite some” degree of monetary stimulus.

                                        However, Mersch also warned that risks related to global factors, including “the threat of increased protectionism, the finalization of the Brexit negotiations and vulnerabilities in emerging markets are gaining prominence.”

                                        UK GDP growth stalled in August, Sterling mildly lower

                                          Sterling trades mildly lower after UK GDP miss. UK GDP was flat in August, grew 0.0% mom, below expectation of 0.1% mom. Though July’s figure was revised up from 0.3% mom to 0.4% mom. For the three months from June to August, GDP grew 0.7% from the  March to May quarter.

                                          Commenting on today’s GDP figures, Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said: “The economy continued to rebound strongly after a weak spring, with retail, food and drink production and housebuilding all performing particularly well during the hot summer months. However, long-term growth continues to lag behind its historical trend.”

                                          All three main sectors contributed to GDP growth in the three months to August. Services grew 0.42%, production grew 0.10%, construction grew 0.17%.

                                          Full GDP release here.

                                          Also from UK, industrial production rose 0.2% mom, 1.3% in August, above expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.1% yoy. Manufacturing production dropped -0.2% mom, rose 1.3% yoy, below expectation of 0.2% mom, 1.5% yoy.

                                          Visible trade deficit widened to GBP -11.2B in August, above expectation of GBP -10.9B.