Non-farm payroll and wage growth missed expectations, unemployment rate dropped to lowest since 2000

    US non-farm payrolls rose 164k in April, below expectation of 194k. Prior month’s figure was revised up from 103k to 135k.

    Unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% , down from 4.1% and beat expectation of 4.0%. That’s the lowest level since the end of 2000.

    Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% mom only, below expectation of 0.2% mom.

    Notable buying is seen in the Japan yen after the report, with USD/JPY driving to as low as 108.65 so far. But Dollar is steady against Euro, Swiss, Sterling, Aussie and Canadian, in tight range.

    Constancio: ECB is now a modern, effective and prepared central bank

      In a speeched titled “Past and future of the ECB monetary policy”, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio reviewed the four phases in the ECB journey since 1999. They are the beginning, pre-crisis, global financi crisis and great recesssion, and ultra-low and QE. And after going through the journey, the “new unconventional instruments, along with forward guidance, negative rates and reverse repos belong now to the monetary policy toolkit to be used whenever necessary.” And ECB will have “no excuse” no to fulfil its mandate.

      ECB has also joined the “community of central banks of other major jurisdictions using flexible inflation targeting regimes and asset purchases as non-standard measures.” ECB is now a “modern, effective and prepared central bank to serve the goals of monetary union.”

      Full speech here

      China said agreements reached on some issues with the US, but considerable differences still exit

        In an editorial in the official China Xinhua, it’s set that China and the US “reached agreements” on some issues in the trade talks. And both sides agreed to set up a “work mechanism” to keep close communications.

        But there are “considerable differences” that still exist on some issues and “continued hard work is required for more progress”.

        Eurozone PMI composite at 55.1. Marked, broadbased fading of growth spurt

          Eurozone PMI services was finalized at 54.7 in April, revised down from 55.0. Prior month’s reading was 54.9.

          Eurozone PMI composite was finalized at 55.1, revised down from 55.2. Prior month’s reading was 55.2.

          German PMI composite dropped to 19-month low at 54.6. Italy PMI composite dropped to 15-month low at 52.9.

          On the other hand, France PMI composite rose to 2 month high at 56.9. Ireland PMI composite rose to 3 month high at 57.6.

          Quote from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS:

          “The final PMI numbers confirm the marked, broadbased fading of the eurozone’s growth spurt so far this year. The headline index has fallen from an eleven-and-a-half year peak in January to a 15- month low in April. Despite the drop, the PMI is not yet at a worryingly low level, but the survey details hint at further easing in the coming months.

          “While the expansion signalled by April’s PMI is disappointing relative to the elevated levels seen at the start of the year, the survey remains indicative of the eurozone economy growing at a robust quarterly rate of approximately 0.5-0.6%. Employment growth is also still booming, with the rate of job creation in the service sector at its highest for over a decade.

          “Employment is a lagging indicator, however, and two reliable leading indicators have turned down, suggesting that both output and hiring trends will weaken further, at least into May. First, backlogs of uncompleted orders grew at the slowest rate for eight months. Second, companies’ expectations about future output hit a five-month low. Any further deterioration could herald new concerns among policymakers regarding the economic outlook.”

          US “detailed list of asks” to China leaked

            While there is no official communications regarding the so-called trade “negotiation” between US and China, WSJ reported the “detailed list of asks” that the US delegates gave to China during the meeting in Beijing.

            In short, US asks China to:

            • narrow trade surplus by US 200B by 2020
            • reduce trade imbalance immediately
            • halt subsidies for advanced tech
            • cut tariffs on all products to levels no higher than that of US
            • refrain from targeting US farmers and agricultural products
            • refrain from retaliating against US restrictions on investments from China

            It’s unsure what the US has offered on the table.

            When you ask for something without offering anything, that’s not really negotiation. From there, it’s unsure how seriously the US is taking the so called trade negotiation.

             

            US non-farm payrolls as the key focus today

              US non-farm payrolls report will be the main feature today. Markets expect 194k job growth in April. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.1% to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% mom. Pre-NFP job data saw ADP job grew solid 204k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing and services dropped to 53.6 and 54.2 respectively, both showing slowdown but still well in expansion territory. Weekly jobless claims have been exceptionally low in the prior weeks.

              There isn’t much concern on the headline number as the most other data pointed to healthy employment market. Instead, there could be a pleasant surprise of upward revision in March’s dismal figure of 103K. Wage growth will likely continue to be the market mover.

              Below are the charts on March data (released on April 6).

              RBA to stay patient despite slightly more positive than expected forecasts

                In RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy, economic projections were largely unchanged. Overall, the projections are slightly more positive than expected. But there wouldn’t be any change to the expectation that RBA will stand pat throughout 2018, at least. There was no downward revision in GDP forecast. Underlying inflation forecasts were revised slightly up. On the negative side, unemployment rate will take longer to drop again.

                And as noted in the statement, RBA said “the forecasts reflect the expected decline in spare capacity in the economy as GDP growth picks up and as the labour market moves towards full employment.” And, “a key area of uncertainty for the inflation outlook is around how quickly wages growth picks up in response to improving labour market conditions.”

                Year-average GDP growth is forecast to be at 3.00% in 2018 and 3.25% in 2019. CPI inflation is forecast to rise to 2.25% at 2018 year end and stay there till June 2020.

                The first change is that unemployment rate forecast was raised to 5.50% in June 2018 and December 2018, revised up from 5.25%. Onwards, unemployment rate is projected to drop to 5.25% in June 2019 and stay there till June 2020.

                The second change is that underlying inflation is expected to be higher at 2.00% in June 2018 and December 2018, revised up from 1.75%. Then underlying inflation is projected to stay a 2.00% till picking up again to 2.25% in June 2020.

                Below are the most updated forecasts.

                Here are February projections.

                Full release here

                Mnuchin: There were “very good conversations” with China

                  US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, now in Beijing on the second day of trade talk with China, said there were “very good conversations”. But he didn’t made any further comments.

                  Meanwhile, Mark Calabria, chief economist to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, commented on the US-China trade negotiations in Washington. He said that the “full day of negotiations” has been “fairly positive”. There were “pretty positive things” from China. But “the question question is whether they will actually do them”.

                  The official China Daily newspaper said in an editorial that “acceptable agreements can be reached if both sides have realistic expectations of their give and take.” The usually hawkish Global Times said that “since both sides have their bottom lines to keep, it may be hard to reach a deal, but it is good to start somewhere.”

                  JPY jumps on DOW’s steep fall, USD bulls no need to panic yet

                    Yen’s rally accelerates in US session as helped by steep decline in stocks. Lackluster earnings is a factor weighing on sentiments. The lack of positive news from China-US trade talk is another. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is in Beijing for two days of meeting. It’s common practice, a norm, as courtesy or whatever, for both sides to come out to say something nice after the first day of meeting. But so far, there is none. That could make traders a bit nervous.

                    DOW is trading down around -1% at the time of writing. And that is not unexpected. We’ve mentioned in a quick comment earlier today that price actions from 23360.29 are a triangle pattern. It may or may not extend. But an eventual downside break out is expected to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26616.71 at 23351.24. Whether there will be another up-leg before the breakout could depend on tomorrow’s non-farm payroll.

                    Back to the currency markets, we’d like to emphasized that EUR/USD is held below 1.2031 minor resistance, AUD/USD well below 0.7583, USD/CHF well above 0.9919. And even USD/CAD (CAD has been a rather resilient one) is in tight range below 1.2915. GBP/USD even extended recent decline to as low as 1.3537. The sharp fall in USD/JPY is not the end of the trend for Dollar. Instead, it just reflects that market are a bit nervous for now. And Yen also rides on the pull back in treasury yields. So Dollar bulls don’t need to panic before NFP.

                    ISM services dropped to 56.8, respondants concerned of tariff uncertainty

                      ISM services dropped to 56.8 in April, down from 58.8 and missed expectation of 58.1. Employment component dropped -3 pts to 53.6.

                      It’s noted in the release that “there was a slowing in the rate of growth that was mostly attributed to the decline in the Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes.” And, “the respondents have expressed concern regarding the uncertainty about tariffs and the effect on the cost of goods.”

                      Some response quoted here:

                      • “The trade tensions are impacting purchasing of steel and are causing suppliers to send letters of concern regarding contracted purchases for this year and the future based on these proposed tariffs.” (Construction)
                      • “Steel tariffs/232 have impacted our steel costs (pipes, fittings, valves, vessels [and the like]).” (Mining)
                      • “Some indicators of rising transportation costs, which will eventually affect product prices. Trade tariffs will cause unintended consequences on all industries, affecting production and non-production commodities.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

                      Full release here

                      US trade deficit narrowed in March, continuing jobless claims dropped to lowest since 1973

                        USD continues to trade with a soft tone in early US session. But it’s staying in yesterday’s range except versus JPY and NZD, which are both strong today.

                        US trade deficit narrowed to USD -49.0B in March, down USD -8.8B from USD -57.7B in February. That’s also the lowest monthly deficit in six months. March exports rose USD 4.2b to USD 208.5b. Imports dropped USD 4.6b to USD 257.5B.

                        Trade deficit with China, however, rose USD 0.7B to USD 35.4B in March. Exports to China rose USD 1.6B to USD 12.4B. But imports increased more by USD 2.3B to USD 47.7B.

                        Also, it should be noted that year-to-date, trade deficit widened USD -25.5B, or 18.5%, from the same period in 2017.

                        Full trade release here

                        Initial jobless claims rose 2k to 211k in the week ended April 28, below expectation of 225k. The four week moving average dropped 7.75k to 221.5k. Continuing claims dropped -77k to 1.756m in the week ended April 28, lowest since December 8, 1973.

                        Also released, US nonfarm productivity rose 0.7% in Q1 while unit labor costs rose 2.7%.

                        Canada trade deficit widened to CAD -4.1B in March.

                        Into US session: JPY surges against Europeans

                          Yen surges broadly as markets enter into US session. The rally is particularly steep against European majors. Both EUR and GBP are troubled by weaker than expected data. The limited movement in EUR/USD and GBP/USD is just a reflection that USD is consolidating after recent gains. And USD is awaiting tomorrow’s NFP. They are not indications that EUR and GBP are not affected by the releases.

                          The JPY Action Bias table show that for now, only AUD and NZD escape from JPY’s intraday pressure. For short to medium term, European majors are suffering.

                          EURJPY 6H Action Bias chart shows clear persistent downside momentum in the cross ever since breaking 132.5 handle. It’s on course for 128.94 low.

                          Similarly, GBPJPY 6H Action Bias chart also displays persistent downside momentum after taking out 151. 144.97 will be the next target after taking out 148.37 support.

                          ECB Praet: Data suggested some loss of momentum in economic activity

                            ECB chief economist Peter Praet said while the central bank cannot yet declare “mission accomplished” on inflation, ” we have made substantial progress on the path towards a sustained adjustment in inflation.”

                            Praet acknowledged that “the latest economic data and survey results have generally surprised to the downside, suggesting some loss of momentum in economic activity.” But he pointed out that “temporary factors may also be at work”. He emphasized that “we will also need to monitor whether, and if so, to what extent, these developments reflect a more durable softening in demand.”

                            Euro dips as CPI slowed to 1.2%, missed expectations

                              EUR drops broadly, except versus CHF after inflation data missed expectations. Weakness is apparent in 4H row in the heat map.

                              Eurozone flash CPI slowed to 1.2% yoy in April, down from 1.3% Yoy and missed expectation of 1.3% yoy. CPI core performed even worse, dropped to 0.7% yoy, down from 1.0% yoy and missed expectation of 0.9% yoy.

                              Eurozone PPI rose 0.1% mom, 2.1% yoy in March, matched expectations.

                              The relatively neutral D action bias chart suggests that’s EUR/AUD is in consolidation.

                              Meanwhile, the 6H action bias chart indicates it’s having solid downside near term momentum, for 1.5773 support.

                              UK PMI services rose to 52.8 vs exp 53.5, rate of economic growth remained disappointingly subdued

                                UK PMI services missed market expectations, but GBP is steadily in range against USD, EUR and JPY so far.

                                PMI services rose to 52.8 in April, up from 51.7 but missed consensus of 53.5. Markit’s key findings are not too encouraging for the UK. It noted that business activity rises at subdued pace in April. There is the weakest upturn in employment since March 2017 and inflationary pressures are moderate.

                                Comments from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit:

                                “The services survey adds to signs that the rate of economic growth remained disappointingly subdued at the start of the second quarter. The three PMI surveys collectively showed only a muted rebound in business activity after being disrupted by heavy snowfall in March, failing to regain February’s pace of growth to suggest that the underlying performance of the economy has continued to deteriorate.

                                “The overall expansion signalled by the three surveys in April was the second-weakest since the Brexit vote, pointing to a quarterly rate of GDP growth of around 0.2% at the start of the second quarter.

                                “Jobs growth across services, manufacturing and construction has also slowed to its weakest since the referendum and inflationary pressures have eased.

                                “The surveys have indicated that sales, investment and hiring are being hit by uncertainty about the economic outlook as well as sluggish domestic demand, notably among consumers.

                                “The disappointing services data will add to expectations that the MPC will take its finger firmly off the rate hike trigger. Any further slowing will also raise questions as to whether the November rate hike may have been ill-timed.”

                                Full release here.

                                Mnuchin arrives in Beijing as China warns to stand up to US bullying

                                  US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin arrives in Beijing today and is set to kick start trade negotiation with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He. Mnuchin told reporter he’s “thrilled to be here” upon arriving his hotel. The delegation planned to leave Friday evening.

                                  Ahead of the meeting, the official China Daily said in a editorial that it will “stand up to the US’ bullying as necessary”. And “as a champion of globalisation, free trade and multilateralism, it will have strong support from the international community”. It warned that “the US wants greater access to China’s market, but it should not use trade actions as a battering ram to force China to open its doors.”

                                  Trump still claimed he always has a good relationship with Chinese President Xi in his tweet ahead of the meeting.

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                                  Australian Dollar lifted by large trade surplus and surge in building approvals

                                    AUD trades broadly higher today and it’s still extending the rally at the time of writing. Solid economic data provide some support. Technically, though, AUD remains in down trend against USD and CAD despite the rebound.

                                    Australia trade surplus came in at AUD 1.53B in March, widened from AUD 1.35B in February. That’s also much larger than expectation of AUD 0.68B. Exports jumped 1% to AUD 34.84B, with strong 8% growth in n non-monetary gold to AUD 131m. Imports rose 1% to AUD 33.31B,. Non-monetary gold imports jumped 28% to AUD 232m.

                                    Building approvals rose 2.6% mom in Mach, much higher than expectation of 1.0% mom. Justin Lokhorst, Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS noted that “the strength in the total dwellings series is being driven by approvals for private sector houses, which have now risen for 13 consecutive months.” And, “private sector house approvals are now at their highest level since 2003, in trend terms.”

                                    AUD/USD is trying to draw support from 0.7500 key level for the moment. While it’s firm elsewhere, AUD/USD needs to break through 0.7583 minor resistance to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish.

                                    DOW and 10 year yield still heading down after FOMC

                                      Major US equity indices closed lower overnight. DOW lose -174.07 pts or -0.72% to 23924.98. S&P 500 dropped -19.13 pts or -0.72% to 2635.67. NASDAQ closed down -29.8 pts or -0.42% at 7100.90. Long term treasury yields also closed lower, with 30-year yield down -0.002 at 3.135. 10-year yield lost -0.012 to 2.964.

                                      The reactions, falling stocks and falling yield, argue that markets didn’t bother much with the FOMC announcement.

                                      Overall development in DOW is still in-line with our bearish view. The rebound since late last week we limited by 55 day EMA, the triangle pattern from 23360.29 still holds. Price actions from 2330.29 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 26617.71. It could extend for a while. But eventual downside breakout is expected. The correction from 26617.71 would extend to 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26616.71 at 23351.24 before completion.

                                      Outlook in 10 year yield is also unchanged. The correction from 3.035 short term top should extend lower to 55 day EMA (now at 2.837), which is also close to channel support. If it’s corrective whole five wave rally from 2.033, there is prospect of touching 2.717 support or 38.2% retracement of 2.033 to 3.035 at 2.652 before completion. That is, It will take a while before TNX would have another take of 3.036 key resistance (2013 high).

                                      USD in corrective mode after uninspiring FOMC statement

                                        Market’s reaction to FOMC rate decision overnight was rather muted. The balanced to slightly positive statement secured the chance for June hike, which fed fund futures are already pricing in 100% odd. But it did little on changing the market expectations on the chances of the fourth hike this year in December. That is, it’s still uncertain.

                                        Nonetheless, be patient. Expectations could build up again after today’s ISM services and tomorrow’s non-farm payroll. And, the rate path for the year should be much clearer after new Fed projections to be delivered after next FOMC meeting on June 13.

                                        Here are some reports on FOMC that are worth a read:

                                        And the full statement here: (FED) FOMC Statement May 2, 2018

                                        USD is staying in corrective mode after FOMC announcement. There is broad based selloff in the current 4H bar as seen in the USD Heat Map. But USD is held above yesterday’s low against all at this point. So the retreat is shallow so far. And the greenback remains the strongest one for the week. It just cannot overwhelm CAD still.

                                        Fed kept interest rate unchagned at 1.50-1.75%. Statement cautiously positive, but gives no hints on more than three hikes this year

                                          Fed left federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50-1.75% as widely expected. And the decision was made with unanimous vote. Fed maintained tightening bias and noted that “the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate”.

                                          Descriptions on the economy are slightly upbeat as “job gains have been strong” and “business fixed investments continued to growth strongly”. But “household spending moderated”. While core inflation moved “close to 2percent”, “market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low”.

                                          The tone is cautiously upbeat and give no hints of more than three hikes this year.

                                          Here is the full statement:

                                          Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

                                          Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.

                                          In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

                                          In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

                                          Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.