Fresh selling in Euro as France Q1 GDP missed, rose 0.3% qoq only

    Fresh selling seen in Euro after French data miss. French GDP growth slowed to 0.3% qoq in Q1, down from prior quarter’s 0.7% qoq and missed expectation of 0.4% qoq. Annual rate decelerated to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.6% yoy, and missed expectation of 2.3% yoy.

    The title of this report ECB: Wondering Rather than Worrying summed up yesterday’s ECB press conference rather well. And with French GDP miss, dovish expectation on next week’s Eurozone GDP release could pile up. We’ll see if the coming data clear up the picture for ECB so that policymakers don’t need to wonder any more, but start to worry.

    For now, EUR/USD is on course for 1.2 handle. Selling in EUR/USD also spill over to other pairs and lifted the USD. USD/CHF takes out 0.99 and would now be heading back to 1.000. GBP/USD breaks yesterday’s low at 1.3894, just ahead of UK GDP data, an hour away.

    BoJ raised 2018, 2019 GDP growth forecasts, lowered 2018 inflation forecast

      In the outlook for economic activity and prices report, BoJ noted that the economy is “likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential in fiscal 2018.” For 2019 and 2020, “the economy is expected to continue on a expanding trend supported by external demand. Ex-fresh food CPI continued to show “relatively weak developments” when excluding the effects of energy prices.

      Below are the updated economic forecasts of BoJ:

      • Forecast of fiscal 2018 real GDP was raised to 1.6%, up from January’s estimate of 1.4%.
      • Forecast of fiscal 2019 real GDP was raised to 0.8%, up from 0.7%.
      • Forecast of fiscal 2020 real GDP was at 0.8%
      • Forecast of fiscal 2018 core CPI was lowered to 1.3%, down from 1.4%.
      • Forecast of fiscal 2019 core CPI (ex sales tax hike) was unchanged at 1.8%
      • Forecast of fiscal 2020 core CPI was at 1.8%.

      BoJ also highlighted four major risks to the outlook. First is overseas developments including US economic policies and Brexit. Secondly is the impacts of the planned consumption tax hike in October 2019. Third is change in firms and households medium- to long-term growth expectations. Fourth is fiscal sustainability in the medium term to long term.

      There re also three main risks identified to price developments. First is change in firms and households medium- to long-term inflation expectations. Second is items’s prices that are not response to output gap. Third is the developments in exchange rates and commodity prices.

      Here is the full report.

      BoJ stands pat, Kataoka dissented again, calling for further easing

        BoJ announced to keep monetary policy unchanged by 8-1 vote. Short term interest rate is held at -0.1%. The central bank will also continue with JGB purchases to keep 10 year yield at around 0%. The current pace of JPY 80T annual purchase is also maintained

        BoJ also maintained the pledge to continue with the “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control” until year-on-year core CPI stay above 2% target in a “stable manner”.

        Goushi Kataoka dissented again. It’s noted in the statement that “taking account of risk factors through fiscal 2020 such as the consumption tax hike and a possible economic downturn in the United States”, Kataoka believed it’s desirable to “further strengthen monetary easing”.

        Here is BoJ’s full statement.

        Dollar index targeting 91.90 projection level, building up trend reversal

          Dollar index surged sharply overnight, thanks to the selloff in EUR/USD. The case of medium term reversal continued to build up after breaking of the trend line resistance as well as 91.01 medium term support turned resistance. Focus is now on 100% projection of 88.25 to 90.93 from 89.22 at 91.90. Decisive break there will add to the case that rise from 88.25 is an impulsive move. And thus, affirm the case of medium term trend reversal. However, rejection from 91.90 could make the rise corrective. For, we’re favoring the former case.

          There are a couple of events that could help unveil the development including today’s Q1 GDP, next week’s ISMs and NFP, and certainly treasury yields too.

          JPY recovers ahead of BoJ, ignores mixed data

            A batch of data is released from Japan today. Tokyo CPI slowed to 0.6% yoy in April, down from 0.8% yoy and missed expected of 0.8% yoy. Industrial production rose 1.2% mom in March, well above expectation of 0.5% mom. Retail sales rose 1.0% yoy in March, below expectation of 1.5% yoy. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.5%.

            JPY showed little reaction to the set of mixed data and recovers broadly today.

            While JPY remains the third weakest for the week, today’s recovery can be attributed to the retreat in US yields. 10 year yield closed down -0.034 at 2.990 overnight. back below 3% handle.

            BoJ will announce rate decision today and there is no expectation of any changes. Here are some previews:

            New Zealand recorded first March trade deficit in 10 years

              New Zealand trade balance unexpectedly show NZD -86m deficit in April, versus expectation of NZD 200m surplus. That was also the first March deficit 10 years since 2008. Goods exports rose 5.8%, or NZD 265m while imports rose 14%, or NZD 612m.

              From Australia, PPI rose 0.5% qoq, 1.7% Yoy in Q1 versus expectation of 0.4% qoq, 1.2% yoy.

              NZD and AUD are the weakest major currencies this week, followed by EUR.

              Comparing the two, AUD/NZD is in recovery mode since early April. For now, the rise from 1.0486 is seen as a correction and could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1289 to 1.0486 at 1.0793. But we’ll start to look for topping signal around there.

              EURUSD breaks 1.2154 as Euro gives up

                It looks like Euro bulls are finally giving up. We’re unsure of the reason yet. But the selling has a lot of intensity.

                EUR/USD powers through 1.2154 key support level. That’s an important indicate of medium term trend reversal. For the near term, 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.1991 in the next target.

                EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8688 also indicates that rebound from 0.8620 has completed. And deeper fall should be seen back to this support level.

                EUR/CAD’s rebound from 1.5461 should also be completed at 1.5712, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.6151 to 1.5461. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 1.5461 first.

                Euro trying to recover as ECB Draghi downplays data. Confident on solid and broad-based growth

                  Euro initial dipped but recovered after ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments (in the introducatory statement) on the economy. The point that triggered the reaction is that while data since March “points towards some moderation” in growth, the data were still “remaining consistent with a solid and broad-based expansion of the euro area economy”. And, he added that “the underlying strength of the euro area economy continues to support our confidence that inflation will converge towards our inflation aim of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.”

                  The comments are rather upbeat comparing to the usual standard cautious tone of Draghi.

                  However, strength in the Euro is limited after the “normal” cautious Draghi comes back saying that it’s important to determine if softer data temporary or permanent.

                  EUR/USD’s breach of 1.2154 key support is brief so far. And the recovery could turn focus back to 1.2244 minor resistance. But it will take more time for traders to make up their mind. For now, more downside is still expected as long as 1.2244 holds and a break of 1.2154 is still more likely than not.

                  On other hand, EUR/GBP is still pressured despite the recovery attempt. Focus is back on 0.8688 minor support. Break will indicate completion of rebound from 0.8620. That could trigger EUR selling elsewhere.

                  ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference statement

                     

                    ECB President Mario Draghi’s full press conference statment below:

                    Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council.

                    Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.

                    Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that our net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €30 billion, are intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The Eurosystem will continue to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.

                    Following several quarters of higher than expected growth, incoming information since our meeting in early March points towards some moderation, while remaining consistent with a solid and broad-based expansion of the euro area economy. The underlying strength of the euro area economy continues to support our confidence that inflation will converge towards our inflation aim of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, measures of underlying inflation remain subdued and have yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend. In this context, the Governing Council will continue to monitor developments in the exchange rate and other financial conditions with regard to their possible implications for the inflation outlook. Overall, an ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to continue to build up and support headline inflation developments over the medium term. This continued monetary support is provided by the net asset purchases, by the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the ongoing and forthcoming reinvestments, and by our forward guidance on interest rates.

                    Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Real GDP increased by 0.7%, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2017, following similar growth in the previous quarter. This resulted in an average annual growth rate of 2.4% in 2017 – the highest since 2007. The latest economic indicators suggest some moderation in the pace of growth since the start of the year. This moderation may in part reflect a pull-back from the high pace of growth observed at the end of last year, while temporary factors may also be at work. Overall, however, growth is expected to remain solid and broad-based. Our monetary policy measures, which have facilitated the deleveraging process, should continue to underpin domestic demand. Private consumption is supported by ongoing employment gains, which, in turn, partly reflect past labour market reforms, and by growing household wealth. Business investment continues to strengthen on the back of very favourable financing conditions, rising corporate profitability and solid demand. Housing investment continues to improve. In addition, the broad-based global expansion is providing impetus to euro area exports.

                    The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain broadly balanced. However, risks related to global factors, including the threat of increased protectionism, have become more prominent.

                    Euro area annual HICP inflation increased to 1.3% in March 2018, from 1.1% in February. This reflected mainly higher food price inflation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to hover around 1.5% for the remainder of the year. Measures of underlying inflation remain subdued overall. Looking ahead, they are expected to rise gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the continuing economic expansion, the corresponding absorption of economic slack and rising wage growth.

                    Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (M3) continues to expand at a robust pace, with an annual growth rate of 4.2% in February 2018, slightly below the narrow range observed since mid-2015. M3 growth continues to reflect the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy measures and the low opportunity cost of holding the most liquid deposits. Accordingly, the narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained the main contributor to broad money growth, continuing to expand at a solid annual rate.

                    The recovery in the growth of loans to the private sector observed since the beginning of 2014 is proceeding. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations stood at 3.1% in February 2018, after 3.4% in January and 3.1% in December 2017, while the annual growth rate of loans to households remained unchanged at 2.9%. The euro area bank lending survey for the first quarter of 2018 indicates that loan growth continues to be supported by increasing demand across all loan categories and a further easing in overall bank lending conditions for loans to enterprises and loans for house purchase.

                    The pass-through of the monetary policy measures put in place since June 2014 continues to significantly support borrowing conditions for firms and households, access to financing ‒ notably for small and medium-sized enterprises ‒ and credit flows across the euro area.

                    To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed the need for an ample degree of monetary accommodation to secure a sustained return of inflation rates towards levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

                    In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute decisively to raising the longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities. The implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries needs to be substantially stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost euro area productivity and growth potential. Against the background of overall limited implementation of the 2017 country-specific recommendations, greater reform effort is necessary in euro area countries. Regarding fiscal policies, the ongoing broad-based expansion calls for rebuilding fiscal buffers. This is particularly important in countries where government debt remains high. All countries would benefit from intensifying efforts towards achieving a more growth-friendly composition of public finances. A full, transparent and consistent implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure over time and across countries remains essential to increase the resilience of the euro area economy. Improving the functioning of Economic and Monetary Union remains a priority. The Governing Council urges specific and decisive steps to complete the banking union and the capital markets union.

                    We are now at your disposal for questions.

                     

                    US jobless claims dropped to lowest since 1969, trade deficit narrowed sharply

                      Dollar shows little reaction to a mixed batch of data from the US.

                      Initial jobless claims dropped 24k to 209k in the weekended April 21, below expectation of 230k. That’s also the lowest level since 1969. Four week moving averaged dropped to 229.25k, down fro 231.50k. Continuing claims dropped 29k to 1.84m in the week ended April 14.

                      Trade deficit narrowed sharply by -10.3% to USD 68B in March, way lower than expectation of USD -74.8B. Headline durable goods orders jumped 2.6%, much higher than expectation of 1.4%. But that’s mainly due to a big increase in contracts for Boeing. Ex-transport orders was flat, below expectation of 0.40%.

                      ECB kept main refinancing rate unchagned at 0.00% as widely expected

                        ECB left main refinancing rate unchagned at 0.00% as widely expected. Deposit facility rate is held at -0.40% and marginal lending facility rate at 0.25%. Below is the statement. ECB’s press conference could be watched here if you’re interested.

                        Monetary policy decisions

                        At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

                        Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €30 billion, are intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.

                        The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

                        ECB previews and levels to watch: EURUSD 1.2154, EURCAD 1.5608, EURCHF 1.2, EURAUD 1.6189

                          Euro recovers broadly as traders are awaiting ECB rate decision and press conference. No change in monetary policy is expected today. Main refinancing rate should stay at 0.00%, deposit facility rate at -0.40% and marginal lending facility rate at 0.25%. The EUR 30B per month asset purchase program will continue to run until end of September as planned.

                          ECB’s press conference could be watched here if you’re interested.

                          Here are some ECB preview reports:

                          EUR’s recovery is actually quite weak considering that it’s limited below yesterday’s highs, which are not far away.

                          EUR’s  own outlook is mixed too. EUR/USD, is near term bearish. But EUR/CHF, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are bullish. EUR/JPY and EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP are mixed from action bias table.

                          We’d prefer not to anticipate whether Euro traders will react positively, or negatively to ECB press conference. However, if the response is positive, 1.2 in EUR/CHF is the first one to look at, and 1.6189 the second.

                          If the response is negative, 1.2154 in EUR/USD is the first level to watch. And the second will be 1.5608 in EUR/CAD, yesterday’s low.

                          SNB Q1 USD holding unchanged at 35%, EUR holding dropped 1%

                            SNB reported CHF 6.8B loss in Q1 of 2018.That includes CHF 7.0B loss on currency positions and CHF 0.2B loss on gold holdings. The losses were partly offset by CHF 0.5B gain in Swiss Franc positions, mainly from negative interest rates.

                            Current allocations in the foreign exchange reserves were largely unchanged.

                            • USD holdings unchanged at 35%
                            • EUR holdings dropped to 39% vs 40% prior
                            • GBP holdings unchanged at 7%
                            • JPY holdings unchanged at 8%
                            • CAD holdings unchanged at 3%

                            German Gfk consumer climate dropped 0.1 to 10.8. Increasingly insecure state of geopolitics influencing consumer mood

                              German Gfk consumer climate dropped to 10.8 in May, down 0.1 from 10.9, met expectations.

                              Quote from the release:

                              “The increasingly insecure state of geopolitics now also seems to be influencing the mood of consumers. There is a tangible drop in economic expectations in April, while income expectations fell only slightly by comparison. In contrast, propensity to buy is still at a very high level.”

                              “The escalation of the Syrian crisis and the protectionist trade policies of the United States are worrying consumers and could now also affect Germany’s previously excellent economic prospects.”

                              “Further escalation of these conflicts would also have a long-term adverse effect on the consumer climate. Above all, increasing protectionism in international trade would hit Germany, as an export nation, resulting in employees fearing they may lose their jobs and again being more reluctant to buy. In this case, the consumer forecast would certainly be untenable.

                              Full relesae here.

                              South Korean Moon and North Korean Kim to plant the tree of “peace and prosperity” on Friday

                                South Korean President Moon Jae-in will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in a historical encounter tomorrow on Friday. That’s the first highest level summit between the two countries for in more than a decade.

                                According South Korean chief of staff, the meeting will start at 10:30 a.m. (0130 GMT) at the Peace House in Panmunjom, a village just north of the de facto border between North and South Korea. Kim will then cross the border at 9:30 a.m. (0030 GMT). Moon and Kim will then have lunch separately before holding a tree-planting ceremony in the afternoon.

                                In the ceremony, a pine tree will be planted on the demarcation line, as a symbol of “peace and prosperity”. Soil from Mount Paektu in North Korea and Mount Halla in South Korea will be used. Also, the tree with be watered with water brought from the Taedong River in the North and the Han River in the South.

                                A second round of talk will then be held after a walk in Panmunjom. A pact will then be signed by Kim and Moon, with an announcement. And the encounter will conclude with dinner on the South’s side and watch a video clip themed ‘Spring of One’.

                                Fitch affirms Japan’s ‘A’ IDR rating with stable outlook. Trade protectionism poses a downside risk

                                  Fitch Ratings affirmed Japan’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘A’ with a Stable Outlook. Fitch noted Japan’s “balance the strengths of an advanced and wealthy economy, with high governance standards and strong public institutions, against weak medium-term growth prospects and high public debt.” And, “strong external finances marked by a persistent current account surplus and large net external credit and international investment positions relative to peers.”

                                  Fitch expected Japan GDP growth to slow to 1.3% in 2018 and 0.7% in 2019. However, “trade protectionism poses a downside risk to the outlook, exemplified by the imposition of a 25% tariff on US imports of steel and aluminium, including from Japan.” Also, “spillovers from trade tensions between the US and China are also a risk, as are tensions on the Korean peninsula.” Regarding inflation, Fitch projected headline inflation to reach only 1.2% at the end of 2018, and rise temporarily to 2.8% at the end of 2019 due to sales tax hike.

                                  The monetary settings under BoJ’s yield curve control framework will “remain broadly unchanged for the foreseeable future”. Fitch noted recent slowdown in asset purchase has been sufficient to sustain the share of outstanding JGBs held by the central bank at around 40%-45%. And, “this level of BoJ ownership is within levels that would prevent the emergence of problems for JGB market liquidity, which the BoJ continues to monitor closely.”

                                  Full release here

                                  Moody’s affirms US Aaa rating, stable outlook. Economic strength couter balance lower fiscal strength

                                    Moody’s Investor Service affirmed US Aaa rating. Outlook was also maintained as stable. Moody’s noted that “exceptional economic strength” of the US, very high strength of its institution, very low exposure to credit related-shocks. And that “counter balance” the lower fiscal strength.

                                    The rating agency also noted that “diversity, dynamism, and competitiveness” of the US economy, Dollar’s status as the “pre-eminent international reserve currency” and the “very large size and depth” of the treasury market. These advantages will “offset rising fiscal pressures” from “ageing-related entitlement spending, higher debt service payments”, and recent policy actions that will likely lower revenues and increase expenditures.

                                    Full release here

                                    For now, Moody’s expected US and China to reach a trade deal eventually. However, Moody’s Senior Credit Officer William Foster said that “if things ultimately progress in a way that is outside of the base case, that would be negative for both countries and for the global market place, but our expectation is this will be negotiated back from the headlines you’re reading.”

                                    Canada Freeland: “Good” and “constructive” progress made in NAFTA talks

                                      Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are still carrying on with NAFTA renegotiation in Washington.

                                      Freeland hailed yesterday that “there is a very strong, very committed, good-faith effort for all three parties to work 24/7 on this and to try and reach an agreement.” And, some “good” and “constructive” progress was made. They are working on “a set of “proposals based on the creative ideas the U.S. came up with in March”.

                                      But there are still some major differences. For example, Canada is firm on it’s stance that object the including of a “sunset clause” what would allow one of the three members to quit after five years. Freeland said that the withdrawal mechanism is “absolutely unnecessary”.

                                      Also Freeland reiterated Canada’s opposition to US steel and aluminum tariffs, which is currently exempted until May 1. She said “Canada’s position has been clear from the outset and that is that Canada expects to have a full and permanent exemption from any quotas or tariffs.”

                                      CHF and CAD showing some strength while USD dominates

                                        USD is without a doubt the strongest one today as helped by another day of rally in yields. 10 year yield hit as high as 3.032, just shy of 2013 high, key resistance level, of 3.036. Up till now, it looks like TNX could close above 3.000 handle. But let’s see.

                                        D heatmap shows that GBP is so far very resilient today, staying above yesterday’s low against USD and is trading as the second strongest. However, it’s the strength of CHF and CAD in the current 4H bar that catches our attention.

                                        On the one hand, CHF is helped as EUR/CHF is rejected by 1.2 again.

                                        Meanwhile, CAD is helped by some cross buying. It’s a bit early to say. But EUR/CAD could be starting to end (?) the corrective rebound from 1.5461, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.6151 to 1.5461 at 1.5724.

                                        EUR/CAD’s action bias chart is not giving any indication of that yet. We’ll keep monitoring it too see if there will be red action bias bars in H and 6H chart ahead.

                                        USD jumps ahead of US session, EUR/USD breaks yesterday’s low

                                          Dollar rally picks up momentum again in enter into US session. In particular EUR/USD has now taken out yesterday’s low at 1.2181 to resume recent fall to 1.2154 support.

                                          As seen in the D heat map, only GBP/USD’s is holding above yesterday’s low for now. NZD, AUD, CHF and CAD are trading as the weakest ones.

                                          Action bias table also shows overwhelming momentum.

                                          Let’s see how far USD can go in a day with no important economic data featured.