Market response to Trump: Nikkei flat, HSI up, FX in yesterday’s ranges

    Market reactions to the news that Trump is trying to triple down on the tariffs on Chinese products are so far mild. Nikkei has been fluctuating between gain and loss and is trading nearly flat at the time of writing. While China is still away on holiday, Hong Kong is back with HSI trading up 1.26%.

    In the current markets, major pairs and crosses are trading inside Friday’s range as seen in the D heatmap.

    But market reactions on the trade war issue has been somewhat delayed recently. We’ll have to wait for European open, at least, to get a better idea on how serious are traders on Trump’s proposal.

    Trump proposes to triple down tariffs against China to USD 150b

      US President Donald Trump is now intending to triple down on his trade actions against China. He has just ordered the Trade Representative to consider tariffs on additional USD 100b in Chinese imports, in addition to the USD 50b list of 1300 product lines. In his own statement, Trump condemned China’s retaliation as “unfair” to “harm our farmers and manufacturers”. He also ordered the Secretary of Agriculture to “implement a plan to protect our farmers and agricultural interests”. USTR Robert Lighthizer supported Trump’s proposal and said it’s an “appropriate response” to China’s recent threat of new tariffs.

      Below are the statements from Trump and Lighthizer:

      Statement from President Donald J. Trump on Additional Proposed Section 301 Remedies

      Following a thorough investigation under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) determined that China has repeatedly engaged in practices to unfairly obtain America’s intellectual property. The practices detailed in the USTR’s investigation have caused concern around the world. China’s illicit trade practices − ignored for years by Washington − have destroyed thousands of American factories and millions of American jobs. On April 3, 2018, the USTR announced approximately $50 billion in proposed tariffs on imports from China as an initial means to obtain the elimination of policies and practices identified in the investigation.

      Rather than remedy its misconduct, China has chosen to harm our farmers and manufacturers. In light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the USTR to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs. I have also instructed the Secretary of Agriculture, with the support of other members of my Cabinet, to use his broad authority to implement a plan to protect our farmers and agricultural interests.

      Notwithstanding these actions, the United States is still prepared to have discussions in further support of our commitment to achieving free, fair, and reciprocal trade and to protect the technology and intellectual property of American companies and American people. Trade barriers must be taken down to enhance economic growth in America and around the world. I am committed to enabling American companies and workers to compete on a level playing field around the world, and I will never allow unfair trade practices to undermine American interests.

      USTR Robert Lighthizer Statement on the President’s Additional Section 301 Action

      “President Trump is proposing an appropriate response to China’s recent threat of new tariffs. After a detailed investigation, USTR found overwhelming evidence that China’s unreasonable actions are harming the U.S. economy. In the light of such evidence, the appropriate response from China should be to change its behavior, as China’s government has pledged to do many times. Economies around the world – including China’s own – would benefit if China would implement policies that truly reward hard work and innovation, rather than continuing its policies that distort the vital high-tech sector.

      “Unfortunately, China has chosen to respond thus far with threats to impose unjustified tariffs on billions of dollars in U.S. exports, including our agricultural products. Such measures would undoubtedly cause further harm to American workers, farmers, and businesses. Under these circumstances, the President is right to ask for additional appropriate action to obtain the elimination of the unfair acts, policies, and practices identified in USTR’s report.”

      Any additional tariffs proposed will be subject to a similar public comment process as the proposed tariffs announced on April 3, 2018. No tariffs will go into effect until the respective process is complete.

      CAD/JPY long opportunity for quick trading and position trading

        USD/JPY is trading as the biggest mover (up) today, and momentum is maintained in the current 4H period.

        This is consistent with the D heatmap where USD is the strongest one, while JPY is the weakest one.

        However, looking at the 4H heatmap and W heatmap, we can see that USD’s strength is not that overwhelming. And indeed, CAD’s strength look more solid. And, CAD/JPY is indeed also top 10 movers across all time frame.

        Hence, CAD/JPY is probably a pair that’s worth more attention. Looking at CAD/JPY action bias table, solid upside momentum is seen in 6H time frame. However, D action bias has just turned from neutral to positive. And W action bias stays negative in the latest 9 bars. While there is a possibility that CAD/JPY is staging a trend reversal, current rebound could also be a correction.

        Looking back at the charts, CAD/JPY should have bottomed in short term at 80.52 after drawing support from 80.55. This give us more confidence on the long trade. For quick intraday traders, a strategy is to long CAD/JPY and target 38.2% retracement of 91.56 to 80.52 at 84.73 for a quick profit. For position traders, we better wait for the reactions from the 84.73 fibonacci level to make sure the pullback is corrective and buy at a dip. 

        Canadian PM Trudeau: High chance of win-win-win deal of NAFTA

          Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also expressed his optimism regarding NAFT renegotiation. He told reports that “we have a high chance of reaching a win-win-win deal for Canada, the United States and Mexico.”

          And, “with the pressures of the elections in Mexico, and the U.S. elections, if we could announce something at the Summit of the Americas, that would be great.”

          That is the April 13-14 summit of regional leaders of the Americans in Peru. And it’s rumored that there will be at least a symbolic NAFTA agreement reached for announcement during the summit.

          DOW heading to trend line resistance at 24835

            DOW opens notably higher today and is trading up over 200 pts within the first 30mins. As we noted here, a based was formed at 23344.52/23360.29. 24314.30 is taken out with ease today. But again, the real hurdle is trend line resistance (now at around 24835). Failure to sustain above there will press recent price actions from 23360.29 into a triangle consolidation pattern. Meanwhile, firm break of the trend line will bring further rise to 25449.15/25800.35 resistance zone, as part of a rectangle pattern.

            Though, in either case, we’re still expecting the correction from 26616.71 high to extend with another falling leg through 23351.24 at a later stage.

            US trade deficit widened to USD 57.6b, initial jobless claims rose to 242k

              US trade deficit widened to USD 57.6b in February, up USD 0.9b from USD 56.7b in January. Exports rose USD 3b to USD 137.2b. Imports also rose USD 3.3b to 213.2b.

              The February figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($3.4), Hong Kong ($3.1), Brazil ($0.9), United Kingdom ($0.6), and Singapore ($0.5).

              Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($34.7), European Union ($15.3), Germany ($6.7), Mexico ($6.6), Japan ($6.0), Italy ($2.8), OPEC ($2.3), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), France ($1.4), South Korea ($1.1), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and Canada ($0.4).

              US initial jobless claims rose 24k to 242k in the week ended March 31, well above expectation of 223k. But it’s still at an ultra low level historically. Prior week’s figure was revised up by 3k to 218k. The four week moving average was up 3k to 228.25k. Continuing claims dropped -64k to 1.81m, lowest since December 1973.

              Canada trade deficit widened in March, trade surplus with US narrowed

                Canada trade deficit widened to CAD -2.7b in February, from CAD -1.9b. Imports rose 1.9% mom, 3.5% yoy to CAD 48.6b, with energy products leading the way. On the other hand, exports rose 0.4% mom, 1.5% yoy to CAD 45.9b, primarily on higher exports of passenger cars and light trucks.

                Canadian trade with the US rebounded after two months of decline. Imports from the US rose 3.3% mom to CAD 32.1b, mostly on aircraft. Exports to the US rose 1.9% mom to CAD 34.6b, mainly on passenger cars and light trucks. Canada’s trade surplus with the US narrowed from CAD 2.9b in January to USD 2.6b in February.

                USDCAD broke 1.3065 fib level on good NAFTA progress

                  Canadian Dollar once again surged overnight on positive NAFTA news. And it’s now trading as the strongest one for the week, maintaining gains for the day.

                  Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said yesterday that “we’re making good progress on NAFTA … having said that, we’re not there yet.” And that’s seen by the markets as positive comments. She will meet with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer today.

                  White House top economic advisor Larry Kudlow also said that there would be “some positive news on NAFTA … and I think the stock market is going to love that.”

                  It’s also reported that in the latest US proposal regarding car, parts are grouped into five categories. And some of which could have a lower requirement for North American contents or none at all.

                  It’s been reported repeated that Trump is pushing to have a draft NAFTA agreement by next week. For now, there are so many outstanding issues that it’s impossible to have a full agreement that soon. But there is a chance of a “symbolic agreement” signalling some consensus, as soon as next week.

                  Technically, the rally in CAD now sent USD/CAD through 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Also, note the head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942) too. It’s now heading to 61.8% retracement at 1.2581 and below.

                  DOW staged 700 pts comeback as trade war cards digested

                    DOW’s initial dive to 23523.16 overnight proved to be temporary and the rebound from there extended without looking back. DOW ended the day up 230.94 pts or 0.96% at 24264.30. That’s a massive 700 pt come back and was the strongest in nearly two months.

                    23360.29 is proving to be a solid support that help fuel the rebound. Also, the cards of the first battle of US-China trade war are now unveiled. At this stage, they’re words only as no implementation dates were given by neither side. US will have to wait until completion of the period of public input on May 22 before finalizing the section 301 tariff list. And China certainly won’t have any further action before the US starts the next move. So between now and May 22, we should have already seen the worst. Beyond that? Who knows?

                    For now, a base should be established at 23344.52/23360.29. And the question is how far the rebound would go. 24314.30 resistance should be taken out easily and the first real hurdle is on trend line resistance at around 24900. The next key hurdle is in 25449.15/25800.25 zone. While a breach of the first one could be seen, we don’t anticipate a break of the second.

                    GBP/CHF resuming medium term up trend quietly as traders focus on trade war

                      NZD and AUD are trading among the strongest ones today, with the help of recovery in US stocks. While DOW did suffer at initial trading, there ain’t no crash. CAD, however doesn’t share the same fortune as markets are back in concern over NAFTA renegotiation. CHF follows as the second weakest one.

                      A quick glance at the action bias tables for each currency reveals that CHF is trading with rather broad based downside bias.

                      GBP/CHF is a clear example with upside Action Bias across time frames. The patterns suggests that it has just finished a near term consolidation and is ready for further rally.

                      GBP/CHF has indeed taken out 1.3194 key near term resistance today and is resuming the medium term up trend. Next target will now be 61.8% projection of 1.2219 to 1.3419 from 1.2861 at 1.3647.

                      DOW lost 510 pts at initial trading, but quickly halved it on recovery

                        DOW opened sharply lower and dived to as low as 23523.16 in the first hour. That’s 510 pts of decline. But it quickly found footing and recovered. At the time of writing, it’s down only around -1.1%, with loss halved.

                        Technically it’s, for now, holding on to 2336.029 key near term support. But rebound has been getting weaker and weaker. This is so far in-line with our view that current fall is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 26616.71.

                        Volatility aside, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 24314.30 resistance holds. And a decisive break of 23360.29 support should be seen in the near term.

                        For, we’re seeing the fall from 26617 as correcting the up trend from 2016 low at 15450.56. Such correction would try to hit 38.2% retracement of 15450.56 to 26616.71 at 22351.24 before completion.

                        Fed Bullard: Not necessary for more rate hike

                          St. Louis Fed President James Bullard spoke in a speech to a meeting of the Arkansas Bankers Association meeting in Little Rock, Ark.

                          He said monetary policy, with federal funds rate at 1.50-1.75%, is now closer to “neutral” than in previous years. And it is “not necessary” to ” raise the policy rate further in order to put downward pressure on inflation”. And “inflation is already below target”.

                          He also pointed to the “surprise” growth in the economy in 2017 and said it has “stalled so far in 2018”. To him, Q1 GDP growth looks “uncertain”. And markets are concerned with US trade policy as well as tech sector regulation.

                          Regarding the flattening of yield curve and the indication of recession, Bullard sounded much relaxed on it. He said, “it is possible that the nominal yield curve will invert sometime in the next year, but recently the 10-year yield has increased enough to keep pace with the FOMC’s rate increases.”

                          Below is St louis Fed’s regarding the discussions. With a link to the presentation.

                          St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Discusses the U.S. Economy Three Months into 2018

                          LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard discussed “The U.S. Economy Three Months into 2018” Wednesday at the Arkansas Bankers Association and Arkansas State Bank Department’s Day with the Commissioner.

                          Reflecting on U.S. macroeconomic developments so far this year, Bullard discussed real GDP growth, inflation and the yield curve, as well as the current stance of monetary policy.

                          On growth, Bullard noted that global real GDP growth surprised to the upside during 2017, driving global financial market developments last year. “The effects of the surprise seem to have abated during the first months of 2018 in the face of uncertain first-quarter U.S. real GDP growth along with other factors,” he said.

                          On inflation, Bullard noted that while it remains low, it is expected to move somewhat higher during 2018. Regarding other macroeconomic developments, he noted that yield curve inversion remains a possibility later this year, and that monetary policy is close to neutral today.

                          “Current monetary policy settings are close to neutral, which is appropriate for the current macroeconomic situation,” he said.

                          Growth

                          Bullard noted that the U.S. and other large economies had better-than-expected growth in 2017, which fed into the profits of U.S. multinationals and helped U.S. equity prices rally last year. For instance, U.S. real GDP growth in 2017 was 0.4 percentage points higher than what the International Monetary Fund projected in October 2016.

                          However, he explained, the effects from the surprise in growth have stalled this year. He cited the following: The growth rate of U.S. real GDP looks uncertain in the first quarter, possibly due to residual seasonal effects; markets are trying to discern the direction of U.S. trade policy; U.S. interest rates are higher; and markets are contemplating possible tech sector regulation.

                          Inflation

                          Turning to the low inflation readings in 2017, Bullard explained why they were so surprising. He noted that they occurred against a backdrop of relatively good labor market performance and a still historically low policy rate (i.e., the federal funds rate target). However, he said, “Special factors are expected to drop out of the year-over-year comparisons soon, likely suggesting that inflation is somewhat closer to target.”

                          He also discussed inflation expectations, which may give a signal of future inflation. He noted that market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased recently. “The measures today are closer to being in line with the FOMC’s 2 percent inflation target, but remain a bit low,” he said.

                          Yield curve

                          Bullard then discussed the flattening of the U.S. nominal yield curve since 2014, which is the result of short-term rates rising while long-term rates have remained relatively stable. To quantify the flattening, he noted that the spread between the 10-year and one-year Treasury yields declined from about 300 basis points at the beginning of 2014 to 70 basis points during the week of March 28.

                          “It is possible that the nominal yield curve will invert sometime in the next year, but recently the 10-year yield has increased enough to keep pace with the FOMC’s rate increases,” he said.

                          Monetary policy

                          Turning to the stance of U.S. monetary policy, Bullard noted that the FOMC has begun to gradually reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. In addition, the range for the policy rate has been increased gradually and is currently 1.50 to 1.75 percent.

                          He also noted that current estimates of the neutral real rate (or r*) are near zero, and that core PCE inflation (measured as the year-over-year percentage change in the core personal consumption expenditures price index) is 1.6 percent. Therefore, the current policy rate setting minus core PCE inflation is near r*, which suggests that “the current policy setting is closer to neutral than in previous years,” Bullard said.

                          He explained that the neutral setting for the policy rate puts neither upward nor downward pressure on inflation, given everything else that is occurring in the economy. “This is appropriate for the current situation, in which inflation is not far below target and is expected to rise,” he said, adding that “it is not necessary in this circumstance to raise the policy rate further in order to put downward pressure on inflation, since inflation is already below target.”

                          ADP employment grew 241k, USD lifted slightly

                            USD is lifted by better than expected job data in early US session. ADP report showed 241k growth in private sector jobs in March, well above expectation of 205k. Prior month’s figure was also revised up from 235k to 246k.

                            Meanwhile, GBP is suffering some steeping selling after today’s much weaker than expected construction PMI, which dived into contractionary region at 47 in March. While EUR was supported by CPI and employment data, it only performs better than GBP in the current 4-hour bar.

                            For the day, with US-China trade war as the main theme, NZD and JPY are trading as the strongest one. GBP is the weakest one, followed by CAD.

                            Ball back on Trump’s court after China’s calculated response

                              A quick recap on the trade war developments.

                              US announced the list of 1300 Chinese product lines included in the Section 301 tariff. Total of product value adds up to USD 50b. Products are broad based but technology related, centered around the “Made in China 2025” plan. Tariff rate is 25%. There is no implementation date yet. White house will seek public comment before finalizing, including hearing on May 15. And companies could file objections until May 22.

                              China announced retaliation tariffs on 106 US products. Total product values add up to USD 50b. Products include soybeans, autos, aircrafts etc, targeted at Trump’s and Republicans’ supporter base. Tariff rate is 25%. There is no implementation date yet. Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao says there is room for negotiation and hoped there will be a resolution via WTO. There is no arrangement for public comments, no hearings whatever regarding the retaliation tariffs. And actually, no one expects such kind of democratic arrangements in China. That’s said, China is ready to fire any time.

                              To us, the most important message from today’s announcements is that China is adopting a hard stance on the issue, and they’re ready to fight, in calculated way. Firstly, the most obvious one was the arrangement of the Finance Ministry’s press conference. It’s held 30mins after Chinese stock market close. There will be two days of holidays ahead. And there are much room for sentiments to stabilize and progress be made before market opens again. Secondly, China’s action is rather targeted to Trump and Republicans. It’s drawing a clear line to the Americans that it’s not righting with all of them. Thirdly, the speed of the response showed that China is well prepared for it, politically too. And remember that Xi has just recently secured his political base by giving him the right to have unlimited terms as President of China. And, so far, has any one heard of opposition voice from China to warn the Chinese government not to enter into trade war? Probably not.

                              So now, the ball is in Trump’s court.

                              Market reactions to US-China trade war: HK HSI down -2.2%, DAX suffering most in Europe

                                Reactions to the US announce on Section 301 tariffs and China’s retaliation tariffs so far:

                                Hong Kong HSI closed down -2.19%. China SSE closed down -0.18%. However, note that the announcement of Chinese Ministry of Finance was done 30 mins after the stock market close. And there will be two days of holidays ahead. It’s obviously China doesn’t want to rock its own markets

                                In Europe, DAX seems to be most hurt as it’s trading down -1.3% right now. CAC is down -0.65% and FTSE is down -0.55% too.

                                DOW futures trading down -450 pts right now.

                                Gold gains over USD 10 to above 1340. But it’s still stuck in range between 1300 and 1366, established since last December.

                                In forex markets, AUD and CAD are notably down after the announcement. Yen surges broadly on risk aversion.

                                Eurozone CPI accelerated to 1.4%, Unemployment rate dropped to decade low, EUR/GBP recovers

                                  Eurozone CPI accelerated to 1.4% yoy in March, up from 1.1%, and met expectation. Core CPI, however, was unchanged at 1.1% yoy, missing expectation of 1.1% yoy. Unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% in February, met expectation, and hit the lowest level since 2008.

                                  UK PMI construction, however, dropped to 47 in March, down from 51.4, much worse than expectation of 51.0. Markit noted construction activity fell amid unusually bad weather in March.

                                  EUR/GBP recovers notably after the releases. But after all, it’s staying in range of 0.8666 and 0.8796. Thus, intraday bias stays neutral, meaning that range trading strategies are more suitable for now, until a breakout.

                                  China annoucned 25% retaliation tariffs to USD 50b of US imports, including soybeans, aircrafts

                                    In a quick response to US Section 301 tariffs, China announced to impose additional tariffs of 25% on 106 US products. The total value of the products will add up to around USD 50b, matching the size of the US 301 tariffs.

                                    The Finance Ministry also said in a press briefing that the goods will include soybeans, autos, chemicals, some types of aircraft and corn products, among other agricultural goods. Additional, extra tariffs will be imposed on whisky, cigars and tobacco, some types of beef, lubricants, and propane and other plastic products. The list also include certain sorghum products, cotton, some types of wheat, as well as trucks, some SUVs, certain electric vehicles.

                                    Here is the statement from the Ministry of Finance (in Simplified Chinese).

                                    China to announce retaliation measures to US at 0830GMT

                                      Upcoming at 16:30 Beijing time, 0830 GMT, China’s commerce and finance ministries will hold a press briefing regarding the US Section 301 tariffs. It believed that retaliatory measure will be announced during the briefing. China has pledged to take counter measures at the same intensity and proportionality. But no detail is leaked so far. The worst for the market is that China’s response will prompt counter retaliation by the US. That could lead to escalating tariffs that drastically reduce the trade activities between the two countries.

                                      China’s envoy to the WTO, Zhang Xiangchen criticized that the tariffs on USD 50b of China import to the US is “an intentional and gross violation of the WTO’s fundamental principles of non-discrimination and bound tariffs.” And he urged other WTO members to “join with China in firmly resisting U.S. protectionism”.

                                      Reactions to US announce of the product list of Section 301 tariffs were initially muted. Japan Nikkei has indeed closed up 0.13%. But fear in the stock markets start to build up with Hong Kong HSI suffering sharp fall in the afternoon, and is trading down -1.44%.

                                      The currency markets are rather steady though, with NZDCHF, NZDUSD topping the top movers chart with slight gains.

                                      China: It’s only polite to reciprocate to US unilateralistic and protectionist action

                                        China responded to the Section 301 tariff list quickly with a strongly worded statement through the Embassy in the US.

                                        China said it “strongly condemns and firmly opposes the unfounded Section 301 investigation and the proposed list of products and tariff increases based on the investigation.”

                                        It condemned that “unilateralistic and protectionist action has gravely violated fundamental principles and values of the WTO”. And such action serves nobody’s interest.

                                        China said it’s “only polite to reciprocate” and said it will resort to the WTO.

                                        In addition, China pledged to take “corresponding measures of equal scale and strength against U.S. products in accordance with Chinese law”.

                                        Full statement in English and Simplified Chinese.

                                        China’s Ministry of Commerce also said in a statement that it will ” immediately bring relevant U.S. practice to the dispute settlement body of the WTO, and is ready to take counter measures on U.S. products with the same intensity and scale that will be published in the coming days.”

                                        Statement in Simplified Chinese.

                                        Market reactions muted as US unveiled 301 tariffs list of products, targeting “Made in China 2025”

                                          The Office of the United States Trade Representative finally released the list of products regarding the Section 301 tariffs against China. Market reactions are so far very muted. Nikkei opened with slight gain following 1.65% rebound in DOW overnight but gyrated lower. It’s currently down around -0.1%. Hong Kong HSI is trading flat. China SSE is trading up 0.6%.

                                          In the currency markets, NZDUSD is trading as the biggest mover for the day so far an is up 32 pips, NZDH CHF follows and is up 26 pips. EURNZD is down -58 pts at the time of writing.

                                          The Section 301 action will impose 25% tariffs on approximately USD 50b of Chinese imports to the US  “in response to China’s policies that coerce American companies into transferring their technology and intellectual property to domestic Chinese enterprises.” And the Trade Res presentative claimed in the statement that these policies “bolster China’s stated intention of seizing economic leadership in advanced technology” in its “Made in China 2025” plan.

                                          The proposed list of products covers around 1300 tariff lines, focusing on technological and industrial products, like televisions, medical devices, batteries, aircraft parts etc. The list will be finalized after public comment, including a hearing on May 15 in Washington. And companies will have until May 22 to file final objections.

                                          Full release from US Trade Representative

                                          And the list of products could be find here on page 14.