AUDUSD Outlook

AUD/USD's break of 0.6964 support today suggests that corrective rebound from 0.6864 has completed at 0.7026, after rejection at 55 D EMA (now at 0.7006). Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.6864 first. Firm break there will resume the whole decline from 0.7277 to 61.8% projection of 0.7277 to 0.6864 from 0.7026 at 0.6771. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6979) holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206. Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

No change in AUD/USD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 0.6964 will argue that rebound from 0.6846 has completed as a correction, after rejection at 38.2% retracement of 0.7277 to 0.6864 at 0.7022. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for retesting 0.6864 low. However, sustained break of 0.7022 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7119 next.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206. Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 0.6964 will argue that rebound from 0.6846 has completed as a correction, after rejection at 38.2% retracement of 0.7277 to 0.6864 at 0.7022. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for retesting 0.6864 low. However, sustained break of 0.7022 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7119 next.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206. Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.