EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4503; (P) 1.4609; (R1) 1.4703; More

Break of 1.4453 minor support argues that’s EUR/AUD’s rebound is completed at 1.4721. And the development keeps the pair in range of 1.4072/4880. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.4072 will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.4880 resistance will indicate that such correction from 1.6587 is completed and turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5094 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting 1.6587 resistance first.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.9799 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out this week. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.6085 to 1.9799 at 1.7504 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.8571 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.9799 high first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress and further rally would be seen to 2.1127 (2008 high) and possibly to 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706. On the downside, for now, touching of 1.6597 resistance turned support (2015 high) is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress next target would be the resistance zone between 2.1127 (2008 high) and 161.8% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 2.1706.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5898; (P) 1.5970; (R1) 1.6097; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.4281 is resuming and should target 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302. On the downside, below 1.5882 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5396) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. On break of 1.5976, focus will be on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6675; (P) 1.6735; (R1) 1.6770; More

EUR/AUD’s decline from 1.7062 resumes by breaking through 1.6647 support. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.6601 support next. On the downside, break of 1.6793 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, Fall from 1.7062 could be seen as correction to whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Sustained trading below 55 EMA (now at 1.6644) would affirm this case and target 38.2 retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5973; (P) 1.6002; (R1) 1.6041; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral with focus on 1.6059 resistance now. Break there will indicate completion of the pull back from 1.6189. And in that case, larger rise from 1.3624 is likely still in progress. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.6189 first. However, on the downside, below 1.5847 minor support will suggest that rebound form 1.5773 has completed and fall from 1.6189 is resuming. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 1.5773 and then 1.5621 key support level next.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal is building up in EUR/AUD. Bearish divergence condition in daily MACD indicates further loss of upside momentum ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Break of 1.5621 should confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5153 and possibly below. Meanwhile, even in case of up trend resumption, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.6587 to limit upside and bring reversal.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4429; (P) 1.4481; (R1) 1.4527; More

EUR/AUD continues to lose downside momentum. But further fall is still expected with 1.4804 resistance intact, to retest 1.4318 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to medium term projection level at 1.3623. On the upside, break of 1.4804 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5508; (P) 1.5594; (R1) 1.5671; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Corrective rebound from 1.5354 should have completed with three waves up to 1.6223. Deeper fall should be seen to 1.5250/5354 support zone. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5837 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5250 low are seen as a corrective pattern. Further extension could be seen and another rise cannot be ruled out. But strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6057; (P) 1.6101; (R1) 1.6142; More

EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6181 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 1.5976, ahead of 1.5905 support. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 1.6432 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.5976 will resume the fall from 1.6432 to key support zone of 1.5894/5905.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6058) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6264; (P) 1.6328; (R1) 1.6399; More

EUR/AUD rises to as high as 1.6484 so far today. Break of 1.6448 resistance indicates resumption of whole rise form 1.5683. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.6765 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6320 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.6247 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD gyrated higher last week but continued to lose up side moment as see in 4 hour MACD. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6053 support holds. Focus is now on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance zone. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 1.6053 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.6389/6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

In the longer term picture, the strong break above 55 month EMA (now at 1.5616) raised the chance of bullish trend reversal. Firm break of 1.6434 resistance should confirm that the down trend from 1.9799 has completed. It’s still early to decide if the up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is resuming. An assessment will be made after rise from 1.4281 reveals more of its structure.

EUR/AUD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4101; (P) 1.4154; (R1) 1.4211; More

EUR/AUD rises to as high as 1.4297 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise should target 100% projection of 1.3624 to 1.4183 from 1.3872 at 1.4431 next. Decisive break there will indicate upside acceleration and target 1.4721 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.4148 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5430; (P) 1.5493; (R1) 1.5546; More….

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.5770 is still in progress and would extend lower. But at this point, we’d still expect downside to be contained above 1.5226 key support to bring rally resumption. Above 1.5556 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.5770. Break there will resume the medium term rise and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. However, sustained break of 1.5226 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We’ll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s up trend continued last week. Disregarding the initial spike, it still reached as high as 1.8109. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Current up trend should target next medium term fibonacci projection level at 1.8619. On the downside, break of 1.7286 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is in progress for 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 1.8619. On the downside, break of 1.6085 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6597 from 1.3524 at 1.8619. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 2.1127 (2008 high).

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5649; (P) 1.5740; (R1) 1.5794; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.5655 will resume the fall from 1.6168 to retest 1.5253/5254 support zone. On the upside, however, break of will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6168 first. Break there will resume rise from 1.5354 to 1.6434 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5907 continued last week despite some loss in upside momentum. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.5991 minor support holds, for retesting 1.6434 high. With 1.5898 support intact, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in progress, and break of 1.6434 will confirm resumption. On the downside, however, break of 1.5991 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5898 structural support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5762; (P) 1.5808; (R1) 1.5846; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral first, and as long as 1.5743 resistance turned support holds, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, above 1.5980 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.6168 first. Break will resume rise from 1.5354 to 1.6434 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.5743 will indicate that rebound from 1.5354 is over and bring deeper fall back to 1.5250/5354 support zone.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for the moment. Rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low first. Further rise could be seen through 1.6434 towards 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 1.5759) will turn focus back to 1.5250 low instead.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5719; (P) 1.5744; (R1) 1.5763; More

Outlook in EUR/AUD remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 will bring further rise to 1.6033 key support turned resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.5657 will be the first sign that consolidation from 1.5250 has finally completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5418 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 1.6033 will argue that such decline has completed, and turn focus to 1.6827 structural resistance for confirmation.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5747 last week but failed to sustain above 1.5704 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. But further rally is expected as long as 1.5271 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 1.5747 will resume larger rally from 1.4281. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5704 from 1.5271 at 1.6150.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5271 support holds, rise from 1.4281 medium term bottom is expected to continue to 1.6434 key resistance next. However, firm break of 1.5271 will argue that such rebound has completed, and keep medium term outlook neutral at best. But in this case, more range trading should be seen above 1.4281 low first.

In the longer term picture, focus is on 55 month EMA (now at 1.5591). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance of bullish trend reversal, and at least bring further rally to 1.6434 cluster resistance, 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 (2020 high) to 1.4281 at 1.6389. However, rejection by the EMA will revive the chance of down trend resumption through 1.4281 at a later stage.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6162; (P) 1.6219; (R1) 1.6282; More

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.6053 support holds. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.5976 from 1.5254 at 1.6302 will resume larger rally from 1.4281 to 1.6389 fibonacci level and then 1.6434 resistance. However, firm break of 1.6053 will indicate rejection by 1.6302 and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5848 support.

In the bigger picture, the strong support from 55 week EMA (now at 1.5404) is raising the chance of bullish trend reversal. Focus is now on 1.6434 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.4281 at 1.6389). Sustained break there should confirm that whole down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) has completed. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7691. However, rejection by this cluster resistance will make medium term outlook neutral at best.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD dropped to 1.6148 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week work. We’re slightly favoring the case that rebound from 1.5976 has completed at 1.6323 already. Thus, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.6323 resistance holds. Break of 1.6148 will turn bias to the downside for 1.5976 support first. On the upside, break of 1.6323 will resume the rise from 1.5976 to 1.6432 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6071) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.