USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.19; (P) 112.76; (R1) 113.81; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly with a break of 113.44 minor resistance. The development suggests that correction fro 118.65 has completed at 111.58 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 115.36 resistance next. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.47; (P) 114.74; (R1) 115.19; More…

USD/JPY retreats mildly in early US session but at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside. Current development indicates near term reversal on double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). That’s whole correction from 118.65 is completed at 111.58. Further rally would be seen to retest 118.65 resistance. Break will resume whole rally from 98.97 and target 125.85 high next. On the downside, break of 113.60 support is now needed to indicate completion of the current rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.76; (P) 155.22; (R1) 155.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY edged lower to 112.51 last week but recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Price actions from 118.65 are seen as a corrective move. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound. Break of 115.61 resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

USD/JPY 4 Hours Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Weekly Chart

USD/JPY Monthly Chart

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.74; (P) 110.28; (R1) 110.85; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. As long as 111.70 resistance holds, near term outlook remains mildly bearish and deeper fall is expected. Below 109.11 will target 108.12 low first. Break will extend the whole corrective fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We will look for bottoming sign there. Meanwhile, break of 110.70 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 114.36 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.28; (R1) 113.73; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 111.58 extends to as high as 114.16 so far today. As noted before, correction from 118.65 should have completed at 111.58, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias stays cautiously on the upside for 115.36 resistance. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming. On the downside, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.66; (P) 112.98; (R1) 113.56; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 113.37 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 115.49 resistance. We’re holding on to the view that corrective fall from 118.65 could be completed with three waves down to 108.12. Break of 115.49 will resume larger rally from 98.97 to 125.85 high. On the downside, break of 112.08 support is needed to indicate near term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.83; (P) 114.06; (R1) 114.26; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Decisive break of 114.36 resistance will confirm our bullish view that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65. On the downside, break of 112.88 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.43; (P) 112.97; (R1) 113.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 118.65 could extend lower through 111.58. But we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.07; (P) 109.41; (R1) 109.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 108.27 is in progress. As long as 110.18 resistance holds, near term outlook stays bearish and deeper fall is expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.57; (P) 111.94; (R1) 112.19; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 112.57 minor resistance intact. Fall from 113.43 short term top would target EMA (now at 111.37) first. As whole rebound from 107.31 is likely completed, sustained trading below 55 day EMA will target 107.31 low and below. In that case, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.57 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stays on the downside as long as 113.43 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.40; (P) 108.57; (R1) 108.79; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.79; (P) 112.04; (R1) 112.42; More…

A temporary low is in place at 111.64 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another decline is expected as long as 112.57 minor resistance holds. Below 111.64 will target 55 day EMA (now at 111.40) first. Sustained break there will target 107.31 and possibly below. Nonetheless, above 112.57 will bring retest of 113.43. Break there will resume whole rise from 107.31 for 114.49 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.37; (P) 113.77; (R1) 114.13; More…

A temporary top is in place at 114.16 with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. We’re still favoring the case that correction from 118.65 has completed at 111.58. Above 114.16 will target 115.37 resistance first. Break will confirm this bullish case and bring retest of 118.65 high. Meanwhile, below 112.85 minor support will dampen this bullish view and could extend the correction from 118.65. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.70; (P) 156.87; (R1) 157.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 157.78 will resume the rally from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, to 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 153.59. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.85; (P) 113.14; (R1) 113.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.68 temporary low. Downside of retreat should be contained by 111.72 support to bring another rally. Above 113.68 will target 114.36 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm our bullish view that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.27; (P) 157.62; (R1) 158.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Further rally would be in favor as long as 154.53 support holds. Break of 158.25 will resume the choppy rise from 151.86 towards 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.53; (P) 112.03; (R1) 112.45; More…

At this point, deeper decline cannot be ruled out in USD/JPY yet. But again, choppy fall from 118.65 is seen as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 113.44 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.70; (P) 108.86; (R1) 109.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.39; (R1) 111.52; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for near term channel resistance (now at 113.06). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. Nonetheless, break of 108.81 will still extend the fall from 118.65 through 108.12 low before completion.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.