Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.50 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.65 %, Hang Seng rose 0.45 %, ASX 200 rallied 0.70 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1230 (-0.40 %), Silver at $17.94 (+0.03 %), WTI Oil at $53.75 (-0.20 %), Brent Oil at $56.60 (-0.20 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.43, UK 10-year yield at 1.26, German 10-year yield at 0.32

News & Data:

  • Japan GDP Annualised (QoQ) Q4 P: 1.0% (est. 1.1%, prev. 1.3%)
  • Japan GDP SA (QoQ) Q4 P: 0.2% (est. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%)
  • Japan Private Consumption (QoQ) Q4 P: 0.0% (est. 0.0%, prev. 0.3%)
  • Japan Business Spending (QoQ) Q4 P: 0.9% (est. 1.2%, prev. -0.4%)
  • Yen slips after Trump-Abe meet, Asian shares firm – RTRS
  • Dollar hits two-week high vs yen on U.S.-Japan summit relief – RTRS
  • Oil prices dip as markets remain bloated despite OPEC-led cuts – RTRS
  • ‘Significant uncertainty’ about fiscal policy under Trump: Fed’s Fischer

CFTC Positioning Data:

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  • EUR short 45K vs. 46K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • GBP short 64K vs. 62K short. Shorts increased 2K
  • JPY short 55K vs. 58K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CHF short 14K vs. 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 4.7K vs. 3K long last week. Longs increased by 1.7K
  • AUD long 17K vs 12K long last week. Longs increase by 5K
  • NZD short 2K vs 1K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K

Markets Update:

All major Asian stock markets are up on the day. Market sentiment improved following the meeting of US President Trump and Japanese PM Abe over the weekend, during which Trump backed a little bit away from his focus on protectionist policy.

In FX, the Dollar strengthened and the Yen was the worst performing currency. USD/JPY opened around 113.40 in Asia, slightly higher from Friday’s close, and rallied to a high of 114.17 later in the session. Resistance is now seen at 115.20.

Price action in the other major FX pairs was relatively quiet. EUR/USD rose from 1.0612 to 1.0636, while GBP/USD made it from 1.2480 to 1.25. AUD/USD consolidated in a 0.7660-80 range, while NZD/USD was stuck between 0.7180 and 0.7210.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:00 GMT – German WPI
  • 11:00 GMT – OPEC Monthly Report

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, February 14th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian NAB Business Confidence
  • 01:30 GMT – Chinese CPI
  • 01:30 GMT – Chinese PPI
  • 07:00 GMT – German CPI
  • 07:00 GMT – German GDP
  • 08:15 GMT – Swiss CPI
  • 09:00 GMT – Italian GDP
  • 09:30 GMT – UK CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone GDP
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Industrial Production
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 13:30 GMT – US PPI
  • 13:50 GMT – FOMC Member Lacker speaks
  • 15:00 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 18:00 GMT – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks
  • 18:15 GMT – FOMC Member Lockhart speaks
  • 23:30 GMT – Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment

Wednesday, February 15th

  • 08:00 GMT – Spanish CPI
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Average Earnings
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Trade Balance
  • 13:30 GMT – US CPI
  • 13:30 GMT – US Retail Sales
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Manufacturing Sales
  • 14:15 GMT – US Manufacturing Production
  • 14:15 GMT – US Industrial Production
  • 15:00 GMT – US Business Inventories
  • 15:00 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 15:00 GMT – US NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 17:00 GMT – FOMC Member Rosengren speaks
  • 17:45 GMT – FOMC Member Harker speaks

Thursday, February 16th

  • 00:00 GMT – Australian Inflation Expectations
  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Employment Change
  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Unemployment Rate
  • 09:00 GMT – Italian Trade Balance
  • 12:30 GMT – ECB Meeting Minutes
  • 13:30 GMT – US Housing Starts
  • 13:30 GMT – US Building Permits
  • 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 GMT – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 21:30 GMT – New Zealand Business NZ PMI
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Retail Sales

Friday, February 17th

  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Current Account
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales
  • 20:30 GMT – US CFTC Positioning Data

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