Could PM Theresa May be running the clock to trigger a Brexit delay? A looming bipartisan amendment from the Conservative Party’s Boles and Labour’s Cooper to aim at forcing to extend Article 50 in the event that no deal is reached by Feb 26th is likely to be approved. More delay would increase chances of Parliament to push for a 2nd referendum (GBP-positive). And with regards to the backstop (the main sticking point opposed by the DUP), the EU would have to offer May some concession on it (such as agreeing on some sort of finality or a clearer duration to keeping the UK in the Customs Union to facilitate Irelands’ border situation). If the EU and May agree on such a deal, both the DUP and the Eurosceptic ERG (European Research Group) will likely approve May’s deal–another solid positive for sterling. The Premium video highlighting last night’s trade is posted below. On Friday, the Long DOW Premium trade hit its final target of 24630 from the 24080 entry. No Index trades are currently open.

Stronger than expected UK earnings data (3.4% from 3.3% y/y) and a drop in Nov unemployment to 3.9% from 4.0% have also helped the pound. Germany’s ZEW current situation index dropped to 27.6 in January from 45.3. US new home sales are due at 10:00 Eastern (15:00 GMT/London). The ECB decision/press conference are due on Thursday.

- advertisement -
Previous articleOil Stumbles But Remains Bullish
Next articleYen Lower after BoJ Downgrades Inflation Forecasts, Sterling Pressing Near Term Resistance
Ashraf Laidi is an independent strategist and trader, founder of Intermarket Strategy Ltd and author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis". He is the former chief global strategist at City Index / FX Solutions, where he focused on foreign exchange and global macro developments pertaining to central bank policies, sovereign debt and intermarket dynamics. Ashraf had also served as Chief Strategist at CMC Markets, where he headed a global team of analysts and led seminars and trainings in four continents. His insights on currencies and commodities won him several #1 rankings with FXWeek and Reuters. Prior to CMC Markets, Laidi monitored the performance of a multi-FX portfolio at the United Nations, assessed sovereign and project investment risk with Hagler Bailly and the World Bank, and analyzed emerging market bonds at Reuters. Laidi also created the first 24-hour currency web site for traders and researchers alike on the eve of the creation of the euro. Laidi's analysis of currency markets stand out based on his distinct style in bridging the fundamental and technical aspects of the markets. Laidi regularly appears on CNBC TV (US, Europe, Arabia and Asia/Pacific), Bloomberg TV (US, Asia/Pacific, France and Spain), BNN, PBSs Nightly Business Report, and BBC. His insights also appear in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and Barrons. He has given numerous interviews and lectures in Arabic, French, and to audiences spanning from Canada, Central America and Asia/Pacific.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.