Market movers ahead

  • On Thursday, we expect Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.00% and signal one further rate hike this year.
  • We expect the EU27 to accept an extension of Brexit when they meet on Thursday-Friday.
  • The Fed is on hold while lowering the ‘dot’ signal for 2019 to one hike (from two).
  • The Bank of England is in no hurry to raise rates in the current environment.
  • Preliminary Markit PMIs for euro area, Japan and the US are due out next week. In particular, we hope to see some stabilisation in the euro area PMIs soon.
  • In Sweden, Valueguard property prices are due out Monday morning.

Weekly wrap-up

  • A dramatic Brexit week ended as expected, as the House of Commons rejected May’s deal, rejected leaving the EU without a deal but supported asking the EU27 for an extension. The decision has to be taken unanimously by the EU27 leaders.
  • The US-China trade war summit between Trump and Xi Jinping has been delayed at least until April.
  • No monetary policy change from the Bank of Japan this week.
  • Euro area industrial production surprised on the upside, supporting our view that euro area activity is starting to recover some ground here in Q1 from the weak H2 18.

Full report in PDF.

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