The Canadian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday, after starting the week with considerable gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3295, down 0.15% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian releases on the schedule. In the U.S., the highlight is JOLTS Jobs Openings, which is expected to drop to 7.54 million. On Wednesday, the U.S. releases consumer inflation data. CPI is expected to improve to 0.3% and Core CPI is projected to climb to 0.2%. As well, the FOMC releases the minutes of the March policy meeting.
On Wednesday, the spotlight will be on the Federal Reserve, which releases the minutes of the March meeting. At the meeting, the Fed said it would start tapering the reduction of its balance sheet in May. This marks a loosening of policy, and comes in response to weaker economic data out of the U.S. in recent months. The minutes should be treated as a market-mover, and if investors don’t like what they hear, risk apprehension could jump and send the Canadian dollar lower.
The Canadian economy has been affected by the trade war between the U.S. and China, especially the manufacturing and export sectors. With talks between the two super-economies continuing, there is optimism that China and the U.S. will reach a deal, and that could boost the Canadian dollar. There were reports last week that an agreement is 90% complete, with the remaining issues including enforcement mechanisms and the removal of trade tariffs.
