Market movers ahead

  • In the euro area we have a packed week with Spanish elections, a potential decision on US car tariffs and the German Q3 GDP figures coming up.
  • Several Fed speeches and US retail sales figures will be scrutinised by the market for changes to the monetary policy outlook.
  • In the China focus continues to be on the trade negotiations with the US, while we expect macro data to confirm a soft picture with moderate signs of recovery.
  • In Japan we expect solid GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q3.
  • In Scandinavia, inflation figures for October and labour market data will take the limelight, especially in Sweden.

Weekly wrap-up

  • Further optimism that the trade war has peaked and a phase one deal is in the pipeline, including a roll-back of some tariffs.
  • Building consensus that the Fed should wait and see how things play out before acting again.
  • The Bank of England shifts from a neutral policy stance to a dovish one.
  • Risk appetite returns on the back of the further trade deal optimism, pushing US and European yields higher.

Full report in pdf.

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