Summary
United States: A Feast of Economic Data Ahead of Thanksgiving
- The cornucopia of economic indicators stuffed into the first half of the week showed that economic growth is slowing. The Leading Economic Index fell for the 19th consecutive month in October, while durable goods orders and existing home sales both declined more than expected. That said, a drop in initial jobless claims is a sign that the labor market is still holding up. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment improved in November, although inflation expectations ticked up again—an indication that price pressures have not yet been fully extinguished.
- Next week: New Home Sales (Mon.), Personal Income & Spending (Thu.), ISM Manufacturing (Fri.)
International: Argentina Shifts Away from Peronism
- This week, the presidential candidate representing traditional Peronism in Argentina’s election lost in a relative landslide to Javier Milei, the Libertarian candidate looking to implement absolute change in Argentina.
- Next week: Bank of Israel (Mon.), Eurozone CPI (Thu.), India GDP (Thu.)
Interest Rate Watch: FOMC Proceeding Carefully on Policy
- The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting emphasized that policymakers are proceeding carefully in terms of setting policy. The FOMC is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle and will adjust policy as needed to guide inflation back to target. We still forecast the FOMC is done hiking rates, though it will be some time before it begins to outright ease policy.
