Summary
United States: Labor Market Cooling but Far from Cold
- With fresh updates on a variety of indicators, particularly those associated with the labor market, the past week’s performance continued to help shape the narrative heading into the March FOMC meeting. Beating expectations, total nonfarm payrolls increased 275K in February.
- Next week: CPI (Tue.), Retail Sales (Thu.), Industrial Production (Fri.)
International: G10 Central Banks Sitting Tight
This week, both the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank held policy rates steady. Inflation concerns in Canada and the Eurozone will, in our view, see the respective central banks waiting until June to initiate rate cuts. Japan also made headlines this week, but despite buzz growing around the idea of a March rate hike, we maintain our forecast for an April BoJ move.
- Next week: Brazil CPI (Tue.), U.K. Monthly GDP (Wed.), Sweden CPI (Thu.)
Interest Rate Watch: Markets Come Around to the Dot Plot
- Financial markets entered 2024 anticipating more monetary policy easing than the FOMC’s December dot plot signaled. Fast-forward to today and the market’s pricing of rate cuts this year seems more in line with the Fed’s.
Credit Market Insights: Locked and Loaded: NFC Sector Looks Solid
- Relative to Q1-2022, when interest rates began their ascent, total non-financial corporate debt has expanded 5%. The muted rise has coincided with corporate bond yields that are hovering well above their norms a few years ago. With borrowing costs elevated, why hasn’t business debt shot meaningfully higher?
Topic of the Week: Can’t Grow Old Without Her: Women’s Central Role in a Growing Eldercare Economy
- To celebrate International Women’s Day, we explore how the aging of the U.S. population stands to affect women as they shoulder a disproportionate share of unpaid care responsibilities but also play an outsized role in providing paid care. As the population rapidly ages, it won’t be able to do so gracefully without her.
