Summary
United States: Consumers Still Carry the Torch, but the Glow Is Fading
- As Powell heads into one of his four remaining meetings as Fed Chair, strength in services and lingering consumer resilience contrast with manufacturing weakness, reinforcing expectations for a December rate cut.
- Next week: JOLTS (Tue.), ECI (Wed.), FOMC Meeting (Wed.)
International: Global Crosswinds: Sticky Prices and Softer Signals
- Eurozone inflation rose more than expected in November, reinforcing the case for the European Central Bank to keep rates on hold. Australia’s Q3 GDP came in below consensus with underlying details showing modest resilience. And in emerging markets, the Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate and signaled a dovish bias while maintaining a neutral stance.
- Next week: Japan Labor Cash Earnings (Mon.), Bank of Canada Policy Rate (Wed.)
Topic of the Week: A Split Committee and Steady Dots
- The FOMC heads into its December meeting with a rare degree of internal division. Regional presidents—particularly those with a vote—have signaled greater skepticism toward further easing, setting the stage for opposition in both directions of the policy decision, though the more dovish governors are likely to provide the critical mass of support needed for another 25 bps rate cut.
