STOCKS

Dow (24100.51, -2.02%) has started to look bearish on a break below 24500 seen last week. If the index is unable to rise back to levels above 24500, it could be vulnerable to a fall towards 23500 or even lower in the medium term. Watch price action near 24000-24500 region.

The DAX (10865.77, -0.54%) is likely to move up towards 11200 in the near term. The current dip could be a correction within the rise from 10600 towards 11200.

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The Nikkei (21536.85, +0.76%) has bounced well from support near 21200. While the index trades higher, there is scope of a rise towards 22400 again in the medium term. Broad range of 23000-21200 could hold for the next 2-3 weeks.

Shanghai (2598.34, +0.17%) is trading near 2600. While resistance at 2650 holds, near term looks bearish towards 2550-2500.

Nifty (10805.45, +0.13%) closed above 10800 on Friday and it could manage to test the resistance at 10850 before coming off from there. Failure to face rejection from 10850 could be bullish in the longer run. Watch price movement in the crucial 10800-10850 region.

COMMODITIES

Overall global commodities are stable and continue to trade in a sideways narrow range which is likely to break soon initiating some volatility in the commodity prices.

Brent (60.27) and WTI (51.57) are trading lower today. Stuck within the 58-60 and 50-52 region respectively, the crude prices could remain stable for a couple of sessions before some volatility gets into the prices. The current ranged phase is likely to be a base formation before a sharp rally is initiated.

Gold (1241.40), Silver (14.65) and Copper (2.7555) are all ranged within the narrow sideways zone and a break on either side looks possible in the near term. Gold could come down to test 1230 while below 1260; Silver could head towards 15 before facing rejection and falling back towards 14.25 while Copper is stuck in the 2.70-2.85 region and could soon break on either side to see a sharp movement.

FOREX

Dollar Index (97.41) came off after testing 97.75 on the upside. Resistance at 98 on the weekly and 3-day candles seem important and strong just now and while that holds, Dollar Index could be stuck in the 98-96 region for a couple of more weeks before coming off in the longer run.

Euro (1.1312) is holding well below resistance at 1.14 and could well test 1.12 on the downside before again bouncing back towards 1.14/15.

Dollar Yen (113.46) has enough room on the downside towards 112.50 while the upside could be restricted to 114 as seen on the daily candles. Trading near the upper extreme of the 112.50-114.00 region, we could soon see a fall in Dollar Yen. Medium term looks bearish.

Euro-Yen (128.36) has immediate trend support at 128 and while that holds, the pair could see a bounce towards 129.0-129.5 in the near term. This bounce in Euro-Yen could be indicative of upcoming Euro strength.

Pound (1.2584) is looking bearish just now while below 1.2650 and has room on the downside towards 1.24.

Aussie (0.7180) too looks bearish and could test 0.71-0.70 in the near term on a sustained break below 0.7150.

Dollar Rupee (71.77) opened below last weeks closing at 71.90. It could trade above 71.50 for the next 1-2 sessions and try to attempt levels of 72.00/20 on the upside. We may see trade within 71.50-72.20 in the next few sessions.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields have fallen sharply over the last week and could now see some corrective upmove in the near term. The US 10Yr (2.89%) is stable and could possibly see a slight upmove towards 2.92%.

The German 10Yr (0.25%) has fallen below immediate support at 0.30%. The 5Yr (-0.30%) and the 30Yr (0.89%) are also trading lower and could fall in the near term. The German yields look bearish for the near term.

The 10Yr GOI (7.4275%) is trading above 7.40% and while it trades higher, it could move up towards 7.50-7.55% in the near term.

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