USDCHF has moved considerably lower from the 20-month high of 1.0130, recording a new almost four-month low of 0.9715 earlier today and touching the long-term ascending trend line. The price retraced more than the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9770, taken from the downward movement from 0.9185 to 1.0130. Zooming to today’s intraday bullish move, the RSI is sloping marginally up in the negative zone, however, the MACD oscillator confirms the bearish structure as it holds below the trigger and zero lines.
Should the pair continue to head lower the next level to have in mind is the 50.0% Fibonacci mark of 0.9655, which holds below the uptrend line. A break of this level would deepen the bearish risks and open the way towards the 61.8% Fibonacci, which stands near the 0.9540 support level, shifting the outlook to a more negative one.
On the flipside, if the price successfully surpasses the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.9770, it could increase chances for upside movements until the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.9880. Slightly above this level, the pair could stop around the 23.6% Fibonacci region of 0.9900.
In the medium-term, the outlook should remain bullish if the price fails to slip beneath the significant diagonal line, which has been standing since February 2018.