GBPJPY has been trading within a negatively sloping channel over the last three weeks, with the bears challenging the lower boundary today. Currently, the price holds well below the 20-and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour chart, which are ready to post a bearish crossover.
Having a look at the technical indicators, the RSI is sloping slightly up in the bearish area, suggesting an upside retracement in the short-term. However, as long as the indicator holds below 50 and the MACD oscillator keeps strengthening to the downside and below its red trigger line, negative risks remain in the background.
In case the pair drops below the 141.10 support and the diagonal line, the bears may pick up steam towards the 140.60 barrier, taken from the low on January 22. A break lower, would endorse the recent negative structure, pushing the pair towards 140.10, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 132.48 to 144.80.
Alternatively, a recovery could open the way towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of 141.90 resistance zone before the focus shifts to 142.15, where the simple moving averages are currently located. Above the latter, the 143.35 resistance could act as significant obstacle. Prior that, however, the bulls need to break the descending trend line currently seen at 143.
The market’s structure remains negative this month and only a jump above the ascending channel would change the outlook to a more bullish one.