AUDJPY fell to a fresh 10-year low of 69.90 earlier this week, before rebounding somewhat to re-enter the sideways range between 72.90 and 70.70 that it had been trading in since early August. The price structure still points to a clear downtrend, though a clear move below 69.90 is needed to signal that the consolidation phase is over and that the negative bias is back in force.
Momentum oscillators paint a mixed picture, with the RSI still in bearish territory and flattening, suggesting that the latest rebound is losing strength. The MACD however, is above its red trigger line and looks to be moving up.
If the bears retake control, the next obstacle would be the lower bound of the sideways range at 70.70, where a downside break could open the door for another test of 69.90. If sellers pierce below it, that would reinforce the negative bias and turn the focus to 68.00, the April 20, 2009 low. Even lower, the 66.70 region would attract attention.
On the upside, the first barrier for the bulls may be the 72.90 zone, with a break higher paving the way for the 73.90 territory, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is also located. That said, only a move above the 76.30 area would turn the broader picture back to neutral.
Summarizing, a break below 69.90 would indicate a resumption of the bigger downtrend. For the outlook to turn back to neutral, the bulls need to push above 76.30.