AUDUSD has been underperforming in the past two days, breaking back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 0.6685 to 0.5506 at 0.5783. When looking at the bigger picture, the pair has a clear downside trend and has been moving below the short-term simple moving averages (SMAs).
Considering the momentum indicators, the RSI is lacking direction slightly below its neutral threshold of 50, suggesting that the market could keep consolidating in the near term. The MACD also supports this view in the negative territory but is currently holding above its trigger line.
If the price continues this downfall, it could approach the 0.5660 support, ahead of the 17-year trough of 0.5506. Even lower, the bottom from August 2002 of 0.5230 could attract traders’ attention.
However, a jump above the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.5783 and the 20-period SMA in the 4-hour chart could lead the price towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.5953, which coincides with the 40-period SMA. More advances could hit the next immediate support of 0.5985.
Turning to the medium-term picture, the market seems to be in bearish mode given that the price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud and the Fibonacci levels.
